相关论文: A continuous spatio-temporal approach to estimate …

Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…

Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem and introduce a novel point-process-based prediction algorithm. Spatio-temporal prediction is extensively studied in Machine Learning literature due to its critical real-life applications such…

Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate…

Aiming to generate realistic synthetic times series of the bivariate process of daily mean temperature and precipitations, we introduce a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model. The non-homogeneity lies in periodic transition probabilities…

Complex systems span multiple spatial and temporal scales, making their dynamics challenging to understand and predict. This challenge is especially daunting when one wants to study localized and/or rare events. Advances in dynamical…

Recent studies in ecology and epidemiology indicate that it is important to include spatial heterogeneity, synchronization and seasonality in the theoretical models. In this work, spatial heterogeneity is introduced via coupled map lattices…

Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

Count time series are widely encountered in practice. As with continuous valued data, many count series have seasonal properties. This paper uses a recent advance in stationary count time series to develop a general seasonal count time…

Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…

Modelling the extremal dependence structure of spatial data is considerably easier if that structure is stationary. However, for data observed over large or complicated domains, non-stationarity will often prevail. Current methods for…

Seasonal time series exhibit intricate long-term dependencies, posing a significant challenge for accurate future prediction. This paper introduces the Multi-scale Seasonal Decomposition Model (MSSD) for seasonal time-series forecasting.…

Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…

Climate change is affecting and will increasingly affect astronomical observations. In this paper, we investigated the role some key weather parameters play in the quality of astronomical observations, and analysed their long-term trends…

In several application fields like daily pluviometry data modelling, or motion analysis from image sequences, observations contain two components of different nature. A first part is made with discrete values accounting for some symbolic…

Recent developments in engineering techniques for spatial data collection such as geographic information systems have resulted in an increasing need for methods to analyze large spatial data sets. These sorts of data sets can be found in…

Ice sheet models are used to study the deglaciation of North America at the end of the last ice age (past 21,000 years), so that we might understand whether and how existing ice sheets may reduce or disappear under climate change. Though…

Large volumes of spatiotemporal data, characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, may experience structural changes over time. Unlike traditional change-point problems, each sequence in this context consists of function-valued…

Climate science produces a wealth of complex, high-dimensional, multivariate data from observations and numerical models. These data are critical for understanding climate changes and their socioeconomic impacts. Climate scientists are…