相关论文: Ebola Model and Optimal Control with Vaccination C…
A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious…
Mathematical modelling has successfully been used to provide quantitative descriptions of many viral infections, but for the Ebola virus, which requires biosafety level 4 facilities for experimentation, modelling can play a crucial role.…
The data for the Ebola outbreak that occurred in 2014-2016 in three countries of West Africa are analysed within a common framework. The analysis is made using the results of an agent based Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model on a…
West Africa is currently experiencing a severe outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD). As part of the international effort to address this outbreak, the United States has committed to building specialized Ebola treatment facilities with 1700…
The Ebola virus and the disease in effect tend to randomly move individuals in the population around susceptible, infected, quarantined, hospitalized, recovered, and dead sub-population. Motivated by the effectiveness in propagating the…
A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model…
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of…
Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of…
A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations,…
We study a resource allocation problem for containing an infectious disease in a metapopulation subject to resource uncertainty. We propose a two-stage model where the policy maker seeks to allocate resources in both stages where the second…
We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary contact network by distributing vaccination resources throughout the network. We analyze a networked version of the…
In severe outbreaks such as Ebola, bird flu and SARS, people share news, and their thoughts and responses regarding the outbreaks on social media. Understanding how people perceive the severe outbreaks, what their responses are, and what…
We formulate a two-patch mathematical model for Ebola Virus Disease dynamics in order to evaluate the effectiveness of \textit{cordons sanitaires}, mandatory movement restrictions between communities while exploring their role on disease…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…
The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases…
The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…
An analytical expression for the optimal control of an Ebola problem is obtained. The analytical solution is found as a first-order approximation to the Pontryagin Maximum Principle via the Euler-Lagrange equation. An implementation of the…
The 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. We developed spatial transmission models…
This study presents a seasonally forced cholera model that incorporates imperfect vaccination as a control strategy. The model captures the temporal dynamics of susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered individuals, as well as the…