相关论文: Credal Networks under Epistemic Irrelevance

We present a new approach to credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. Instead of applying the commonly used notion of strong independence, we replace it by the weaker notion of…

We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance, which is…

Credal networks are graph-based statistical models whose parameters take values in a set, instead of being sharply specified as in traditional statistical models (e.g., Bayesian networks). The computational complexity of inferences on such…

We present new algorithms for inference in credal networks --- directed acyclic graphs associated with sets of probabilities. Credal networks are here interpreted as encoding strong independence relations among variables. We first present a…

Contemporary undertakings provide limitless opportunities for widespread application of machine reasoning and artificial intelligence in situations characterised by uncertainty, hostility and sheer volume of data. The paper develops a…

This paper introduces Logical Credal Networks, an expressive probabilistic logic that generalizes many prior models that combine logic and probability. Given imprecise information represented by probability bounds and conditional…

We introduce credal two-sample testing, a new hypothesis testing framework for comparing credal sets -- convex sets of probability measures where each element captures aleatoric uncertainty and the set itself represents epistemic…

A test is adaptive when its sequence and number of questions is dynamically tuned on the basis of the estimated skills of the taker. Graphical models, such as Bayesian networks, are used for adaptive tests as they allow to model the…

A reliable modeling of uncertain evidence in Bayesian networks based on a set-valued quantification is proposed. Both soft and virtual evidences are considered. We show that evidence propagation in this setup can be reduced to standard…

One of the benefits of belief networks and influence diagrams is that so much knowledge is captured in the graphical structure. In particular, statements of conditional irrelevance (or independence) can be verified in time linear in the…

This paper introduces a computational framework for reasoning in Bayesian belief networks that derives significant advantages from focused inference and relevance reasoning. This framework is based on d -separation and other simple and…

Decomposing predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model ignorance) and aleatoric (data ambiguity) components is central to reliable decision making, yet most methods estimate both from the same predictive distribution. Recent empirical and…

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying reliable Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), where existing approaches primarily rely on Bayesian inference or ensembles. In this paper, we introduce the first credal graph neural networks…

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Given a Bayesian network structure (directed acyclic graph), the celebrated d-separation algorithm efficiently determines whether the network structure implies a given conditional independence relation. We show that this changes drastically…

We apply the principle of maximum entropy to select a unique joint probability distribution from the set of all joint probability distributions specified by a credal network. In detail, we start by showing that the unique joint distribution…

This paper analyzes irrelevance and independence relations in graphical models associated with convex sets of probability distributions (called Quasi-Bayesian networks). The basic question in Quasi-Bayesian networks is, How can…

The idea to distinguish and quantify two important types of uncertainty, often referred to as aleatoric and epistemic, has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last couple of years. In this paper, we consider…

Separable Bayesian Networks, or the Influence Model, are dynamic Bayesian Networks in which the conditional probability distribution can be separated into a function of only the marginal distribution of a node's neighbors, instead of the…

Low-dimensional probability models for local distribution functions in a Bayesian network include decision trees, decision graphs, and causal independence models. We describe a new probability model for discrete Bayesian networks, which we…