相关论文: Bayesian inference for multistate `step and turn' …
In statistical modeling of computer experiments sometimes prior information is available about the underlying function. For example, the physical system simulated by the computer code may be known to be monotone with respect to some or all…
We compare two approaches to the predictive modeling of dynamical systems from partial observations at discrete times. The first is continuous in time, where one uses data to infer a model in the form of stochastic differential equations,…
The value of a continuous character evolving on a phylogenetic tree is commonly modelled as the location of a particle moving under one-dimensional Brownian motion with constant rate. The Brownian motion model is best suited to characters…
Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
We consider a class of stochastic dynamical systems, called piecewise deterministic Markov processes, with states $(x, \s)\in \O\times \G$, $\O$ being a region in $\bbR^d$ or the $d$--dimensional torus, $\G$ being a finite set. The…
We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…
This paper deals with the early results of a new model of pedestrian flow, conceived within a measure-theoretical framework. The modeling approach consists in a discrete-time Eulerian macroscopic representation of the system via a family of…
This article presents a new continuous-time modelling framework for multivariate time series of counts which have an infinitely divisible marginal distribution. The model is based on a mixed moving average process driven by L\'{e}vy noise -…
The analysis of animal tracking data provides an important source of scientific understanding and discovery in ecology. Observations of animal trajectories using telemetry devices provide researchers with information about the way animals…
Robust inference for stochastic dynamical systems is often hampered by sparse sampling and the absence of closed-form likelihoods. We introduce a Monte Carlo path-inference framework that leverages full-path statistics and bridge processes…
Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…
Characterizing the movement patterns of animals is crucial to improve our understanding of their behavior and thus develop adequate conservation strategies. Such investigations, which could not have been implemented in practice only a few…
We introduce a statistical mechanics formalism for the study of constrained graph evolution as a Markovian stochastic process, in analogy with that available for spin systems, deriving its basic properties and highlighting the role of the…
Representations of sequential data are commonly based on the assumption that observed sequences are realizations of an unknown underlying stochastic process, where the learning problem includes determination of the model parameters. In this…
Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of…
The inclusion of cognitive processes, such as perception, learning and memory, are inevitable in mechanistic animal movement modelling. Cognition is the unique feature that distinguishes animal movement from mere particle movement in…
This paper develops a Bayesian mechanics for adaptive systems. Firstly, we model the interface between a system and its environment with a Markov blanket. This affords conditions under which states internal to the blanket encode information…