相关论文: Worst-Case Expected Shortfall with Univariate and …

We develop novel empirical Bernstein inequalities for the variance of bounded random variables. Our inequalities hold under constant conditional variance and mean, without further assumptions like independence or identical distribution of…

Given finite-dimensional random vectors $Y$, $X$, and $Z$ that form a Markov chain in that order (i.e., $Y \to X \to Z$), we derive upper bounds on the excess minimum risk using generalized information divergence measures. Here, $Y$ is a…

We present a novel approach to estimating discrete distributions with (potentially) infinite support in the total variation metric. In a departure from the established paradigm, we make no structural assumptions whatsoever on the sampling…

Estimation of individual treatment effects is commonly used as the basis for contextual decision making in fields such as healthcare, education, and economics. However, it is often sufficient for the decision maker to have estimates of…

Distribution shift is a key challenge for predictive models in practice, creating the need to identify potentially harmful shifts in advance of deployment. Existing work typically defines these worst-case shifts as ones that most degrade…

Techniques for decision making with knowledge of linear constraints on condition probabilities are examined. These constraints arise naturally in many situations: upper and lower condition probabilities are known; an ordering among the…

While modern large-scale datasets often consist of heterogeneous subpopulations -- for example, multiple demographic groups or multiple text corpora -- the standard practice of minimizing average loss fails to guarantee uniformly low losses…

The minimax risk is often considered as a gold standard against which we can compare specific statistical procedures. Nevertheless, as has been observed recently in robust and heavy-tailed estimation problems, the inherent reduction of the…

This paper investigates risk measures derived from the expected maximum deficit in a continuous-time framework and develops optimal reserve allocation strategies across multiple lines of business. We formalize the expected maximum deficit…

We consider the problem of guessing the realization of a random variable but under more general Tsallis' non-extensive entropic framework rather than the classical Maxwell-Boltzman-Gibbs-Shannon framework. We consider both the conditional…

We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…

Convex sample approximations of chance-constrained optimization problems are considered, in which chance constraints are replaced by sets of sampled constraints. We propose a randomized sample selection strategy that allows tight bounds to…

We prove lower bounds on the error of any estimator for the mean of a real probability distribution under the knowledge that the distribution belongs to a given set. We apply these lower bounds both to parametric and nonparametric…

This paper considers the problem of matrix-variate logistic regression. It derives the fundamental error threshold on estimating low-rank coefficient matrices in the logistic regression problem by obtaining a lower bound on the minimax…

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…

This paper proves, in very general settings, that convex risk minimization is a procedure to select a unique conditional probability model determined by the classification problem. Unlike most previous work, we give results that are general…

This paper considers a distributionally robust chance constraint model with a general ambiguity set. We show that a sample based approximation of this model converges under suitable sufficient conditions. We also show that upper and lower…

In experimental design, we are given a large collection of vectors, each with a hidden response value that we assume derives from an underlying linear model, and we wish to pick a small subset of the vectors such that querying the…

This paper defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty of observations of macroeconomic variables that depend on statistical moments and correlations of random values and volumes of market trades. Any econometric assessments of…

We consider a new framework where a continuous, though bounded, random variable has unobserved bounds that vary over time. In the context of univariate time series, we look at the bounds as parameters of the distribution of the bounded…