相关论文: A Bayesian Approach to Predicting Disengaged Youth

Crime prevention strategies based on early intervention depend on accurate risk assessment instruments for identifying high risk youth. It is important in this context that the instruments be convenient to administer, which means, in…

I develop a new identification strategy for treatment effects when noisy measurements of unobserved confounding factors are available. I use proxy variables to construct a random variable conditional on which treatment variables become…

When evaluating a two-phase intervention, the cumulative average treatment effect (ATE) is often the primary causal estimand of interest. However, some individuals who do not respond well to the Phase I treatment may subsequently display…

The is no other model or hypothesis verification tool in Bayesian statistics that is as widely used as the Bayes factor. We focus on generative models that are likelihood-free and, therefore, render the computation of Bayes factors…

The risk of diseases such as heart attack and high blood pressure could be reduced by adequate physical activity. However, even though majority of general population claims to perform some physical exercise, only a minority exercises enough…

We describe a Bayesian model for social learning of a random variable in which agents might observe each other over a directed network. The outcomes produced are compared to those from a model in which observations occur randomly over a…

In many settings, such as scientific inference, optimization, and transfer learning, the learner has a well-defined objective, which can be treated as estimation of a target parameter, and no intrinsic interest in characterizing the entire…

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the…

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

While it is well known that high levels of prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) result in significant cognitive deficits in children, the exact nature of the dose response is less well understood. In particular, there is a pressing need to…

The defining challenge for causal inference from observational data is the presence of `confounders', covariates that affect both treatment assignment and the outcome. To address this challenge, practitioners collect and adjust for the…

Student dropout prediction is an indispensable for numerous intelligent systems to measure the education system and success rate of any university as well as throughout the university in the world. Therefore, it becomes essential to develop…

We propose and axiomatize preferences on a product state space in light of uncertainty regarding the dependency of different payoff-relevant factors. Dependence structures allow to decompose probabilities and allow to pin down behavior…

The network influence model is a model for binary outcome variables that accounts for dependencies between outcomes for units that are relationally tied. The basic influence model was previously extended to afford a suite of new dependence…

Fair and unbiased machine learning is an important and active field of research, as decision processes are increasingly driven by models that learn from data. Unfortunately, any biases present in the data may be learned by the model,…

This paper surveys mathematical models, structural results and algorithms in controlled sensing with social learning in social networks. Part 1, namely Bayesian Social Learning with Controlled Sensing addresses the following questions: How…

Many applications of causal inference require using treatment effects estimated on a study population to make decisions in a separate target population. We consider the challenging setting where there are covariates that are observed in the…

Recovering and distinguishing between the strict-preference, indifference and/or indecisiveness parts of a decision maker's preferences is a challenging task but also important for testing theory and conducting welfare analysis. This paper…

Complex learning agents are increasingly deployed alongside existing experts, such as human operators or previously trained agents. However, it remains unclear how should learners optimally incorporate certain forms of expert data, which…

Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…