相关论文: Bayesian data assimilation based on a family of ou…

For many important problems the quantity of interest is an unknown function of the parameters, which is a random vector with known statistics. Since the dependence of the output on this random vector is unknown, the challenge is to identify…

A procedure to include the uncertainty on the background estimate for upper limit calculations using Poissonian sampling is presented for the case where a Gaussian assumption on the uncertainty can be made. Under that hypothesis an analytic…

Identifying leading measurement units from a large collection is a common inference task in various domains of large-scale inference. Testing approaches, which measure evidence against a null hypothesis rather than effect magnitude, tend to…

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Bayesian inference is used to estimate continuous parameter values given measured data in many fields of science. The method relies on conditional probability densities to describe information about both data and parameters, yet the notion…

Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…

To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is…

This paper, which is Part 1 of a two-part paper series, considers a simulation-based inference with learned summary statistics, in which such a learned summary statistic serves as an empirical-likelihood with ameliorative effects in the…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

Data assimilation (DA) is a fundamental computational technique that integrates numerical simulation models and observation data on the basis of Bayesian statistics. Originally developed for meteorology, especially weather forecasting, DA…

This paper reviews background and examples of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS), and develops details in a subset of BPS mixture models. BPS expands on standard Bayesian model uncertainty analysis for model mixing to provide a broader…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods rely on asymptotic arguments, implying that parameter inference can be systematically biased even when sufficient statistics are available. We propose to construct the ABC accept/reject step…

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

Information theory is built on probability measures and by definition a probability measure has total mass 1. Probability measures are used to model uncertainty, and one may ask how important it is that the total mass is one. We claim that…

We describe a method for Bayesian optimization by which one may incorporate data from multiple systems whose quantitative interrelationships are unknown a priori. All general (nonreal-valued) features of the systems are associated with…

In this paper, we use the Bayesian inversion approach to study the data assimilation problem for a family of tumor growth models described by porous-medium type equations. The models contain uncertain parameters and are indexed by a…

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing…

In many instances, the application of approximate Bayesian methods is hampered by two practical features: 1) the requirement to project the data down to low-dimensional summary, including the choice of this projection, which ultimately…

We are living in the big data era, as current technologies and networks allow for the easy and routine collection of data sets in different disciplines. Bayesian Statistics offers a flexible modeling approach which is attractive for…

Traditional statistical analysis requires that the analysis process and data are independent. By contrast, the new field of adaptive data analysis hopes to understand and provide algorithms and accuracy guarantees for research as it is…