相关论文: NonSTOP: A NonSTationary Online Prediction Method …
We consider the problem of online control of systems with time-varying linear dynamics. This is a general formulation that is motivated by the use of local linearization in control of nonlinear dynamical systems. To state meaningful…
In this paper, we consider sequential online prediction (SOP) for streaming data in the presence of outliers and change points. We propose an INstant TEmporal structure Learning (INTEL) algorithm to address this problem. Our INTEL algorithm…
We consider a time series model involving a fractional stochastic component, whose integration order can lie in the stationary/invertible or nonstationary regions and be unknown, and an additive deterministic component consisting of a…
Stationarity transformations are standard preprocessing in time series forecasting, yet their actual impact on accuracy across different non-stationarity types and model families has received little controlled evaluation. We construct…
Approximate variational inference has shown to be a powerful tool for modeling unknown complex probability distributions. Recent advances in the field allow us to learn probabilistic models of sequences that actively exploit spatial and…
This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…
We study the problem of predicting the results of computations that are too expensive to run, via the observation of the results of smaller computations. We model this as an online learning problem with delayed feedback, where the length of…
High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in…
Learning-to-defer (L2D) routes each decision to a system's own predictor or to an external expert. Streaming time-series settings break the offline-L2D assumptions: the data are non-stationary, expert availability shifts over time, and the…
This paper considers the stability of online learning algorithms and its implications for learnability (bounded regret). We introduce a novel quantity called {\em forward regret} that intuitively measures how good an online learning…
We consider the online control problem with an unknown linear dynamical system in the presence of adversarial perturbations and adversarial convex loss functions. Although the problem is widely studied in model-based control, it remains…
We study the problem of online learning and online regret minimization when samples are drawn from a general unknown non-stationary process. We introduce the concept of a dynamic changing process with cost $K$, where the conditional…
This paper proposes a novel online data-driven adaptive control for unknown linear time-varying systems. Initialized with an empirical feedback gain, the algorithm periodically updates this gain based on the data collected over a short time…
We suggest a novel procedure for online change point detection. Our approach expands an idea of maximizing a discrepancy measure between points from pre-change and post-change distributions. This leads to flexible algorithms suitable for…
We study a problem of simultaneous system identification and model predictive control of nonlinear systems. Particularly, we provide an algorithm for systems with unknown residual dynamics that can be expressed by Koopman operators. Such…
Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships. Most…
We propose an algorithm based on online convex optimization for controlling discrete-time linear dynamical systems. The algorithm is data-driven, i.e., does not require a model of the system, and is able to handle a priori unknown and…
This paper reports on the application to field measurements of time series methods developed on the basis of the theory of deterministic chaos. The major difficulties are pointed out that arise when the data cannot be assumed to be purely…
In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and high-dimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention…
This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified…