相关论文: Determination of a structural break in a mean-reve…

We consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series that the conditional distribution follows a one-parameter exponential family. We propose a change-point test based on the maximum likelihood estimator of the…

This study proposes a point estimator of the break location for a one-time structural break in linear regression models. If the break magnitude is small, the least-squares estimator of the break date has two modes at the ends of the finite…

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the locations of change points in a high-dimensional mean shift model. To that end, we develop a locally refitted least squares estimator and obtain component-wise and…

Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we…

Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown…

This paper is concerned with the estimation of time-varying networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series. Two types of dynamic behaviors are considered: structural breaks (i.e., abrupt change points) and smooth changes. To…

Identifying structural change is a crucial step in analysis of time series and panel data. The longer the time span, the higher the likelihood that the model parameters have changed as a result of major disruptive events, such as the…

We study statistical inference of the drift parameters for the Volterra Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on R in the ergodic regime. For continuous-time observations, we derive the corresponding maximum likelihood estimators and show that they…

Change point detection is a crucial aspect of analyzing time series data, as the presence of a change point indicates an abrupt and significant change in the process generating the data. While many algorithms for the problem of change point…

We are interested in the law of the first passage time of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to time-varying thresholds. We show that this problem is connected to the laws of the first passage time of the process to members of a two-parameter…

This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…

This article introduces a novel method for detecting distinctive structural changes in economic data, particularly within frequency distribution tables. The approach identifies significant shifts in the distribution of a variable over time…

We consider here together the inference questions and the change-point problem in Poisson autoregressions (see Tj{\o}stheim, 2012). The conditional mean (or intensity) of the process is involved as a non-linear function of it past values…

Real-world systems are often complex, dynamic, and nonlinear. Understanding the dynamics of a system from its observed time series is key to the prediction and control of the system's behavior. While most existing techniques tacitly assume…

We consider the problem of estimating the location of a single change point in a dynamic stochastic block model. We propose two methods of estimating the change point, together with the model parameters. The first employs a least squares…

Unsupervised machine learning methods are used to identify structural changes using the melting point transition in classical molecular dynamics simulations as an example application of the approach. Dimensionality reduction and clustering…

We propose a method to infer the presence and location of change-points in the distribution of a sequence of independent data taking values in a general metric space, where change-points are viewed as locations at which the distribution of…

While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test…

We address the problem of detection and estimation of one or two change-points in the mean of a series of random variables. We use the formalism of set estimation in regression: To each point of a design is attached a binary label that…

The purpose of this study is to provide a new methodology of how one can consistently estimate a change-point in time series data. In contrast with previous studies, the suggested methodology employs only the empirical spectral density and…