相关论文: An unbiased Monte Carlo estimator for derivatives.…

We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically…

We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…

Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…

Given a smooth function $f$, we develop a general approach to turn Monte Carlo samples with expectation $m$ into an unbiased estimate of $f(m)$. Specifically, we develop estimators that are based on randomly truncating the Taylor series…

Consider a process, stochastic or deterministic, obtained by using a numerical integration scheme, or from Monte-Carlo methods involving an approximation to an integral, or a Newton-Raphson iteration to approximate the root of an equation.…

Efficient sampling for the conditional time integrated variance process in the Heston stochastic volatility model is key to the simulation of the stock price based on its exact distribution. We construct a new series expansion for this…

We propose an unbiased Monte-Carlo estimator for $\mathbb{E}[g(X_{t_1}, \cdots, X_{t_n})]$, where $X$ is a diffusion process defined by a multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation (SDE). The main idea is to start instead from a…

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes are extensively used in state-of-the-art models for the approximative pricing of financial derivatives. In particular, CIR processes are day after day employed to model instantaneous variances (squared…

The drift sequential parameter estimation problems for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes under the limited duration of observation are studied. Truncated sequential estimation methods for both scalar and {two}-dimensional parameter…

We present general principles for the design and analysis of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators in a wide range of settings. Our estimators posses finite work-normalized variance under mild regularity conditions. We apply our estimators to…

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

We consider the development of unbiased estimators, to approximate the stationary distribution of Mckean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs). These are an important class of processes, which frequently appear in applications…

Many exact Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have been developed for posterior inference in Bayesian nonparametric models which involve infinite-dimensional priors. However, these methods are not generic and special methodology must be…

We present new high order approximations schemes for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process that are obtained by using a recent technique developed by Alfonsi and Bally (2021) for the approximation of semigroups. The idea consists in using a…

In Part I (arXiv:1911.00619) of this article, we proposed an importance sampling algorithm to compute rare-event probabilities in forward uncertainty quantification problems. The algorithm, which we termed the "Bayesian Inverse Monte Carlo…

We consider estimating an expected infinite-horizon cumulative discounted cost/reward contingent on an underlying stochastic process by Monte Carlo simulation. An unbiased estimator based on truncating the cumulative cost at a random…

In this article, we consider computing expectations w.r.t. probability measures which are subject to discretization error. Examples include partially observed diffusion processes or inverse problems, where one may have to discretize time…

We here adapt an extended version of the adaptive cubic regularisation method with dynamic inexact Hessian information for nonconvex optimisation in [3] to the stochastic optimisation setting. While exact function evaluations are still…

In Monte Carlo integration an accurate and reliable determination of the numerical intregration error is essential. We point out the need for an independent estimate of the error on this error, for which we present an unbiased estimator. In…