相关论文: Grouped functional time series forecasting: An app…

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

Producing reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators at fine areal scales is crucial for examining heterogeneity and supporting localized health policy. However, many surveys release outcomes only at coarser administrative…

Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down…

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

We consider a setting where multiple entities inter-act with each other over time and the time-varying statuses of the entities are represented as multiple correlated time series. For example, speed sensors are deployed in different…

A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast…

This paper introduces new methods for constructing prediction intervals using quantile-based techniques. The procedures are developed for both classical (homoscedastic) autoregressive models and modern quantile autoregressive models. They…

We propose a novel extension of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) model to forecast mortality rates by integrating randomized signatures, referred to as the HU model with randomized signatures (HUrs). Unlike truncated signatures, which grow…

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…

High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals…

We propose a new method to construct confidence intervals for quantities that are associated with a stationary time series, which avoids direct estimation of the asymptotic variances. Unlike the existing tuning-parameter-dependent…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS)…

Background: The relative contribution of different aging-associated processes to the age phenotype may differ among individuals, creating variability in aging manifestations among age-peers. Capturing this variability can significantly…

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus,…

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

In many contexts, we have access to aggregate data, but individual level data is unavailable. For example, medical studies sometimes report only aggregate statistics about disease prevalence because of privacy concerns. Even so, many a time…

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these…

Despite the eminent successes of deep neural networks, many architectures are often hard to transfer to irregularly-sampled and asynchronous time series that commonly occur in real-world datasets, especially in healthcare applications. This…

Accurately quantifying uncertainty of individual treatment effects (ITEs) across multiple decision points is crucial for personalized decision-making in fields such as healthcare, finance, education, and online marketplaces. Previous work…