相关论文: Grouped functional time series forecasting: An app…

Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…

We propose a novel approximate factor model tailored for analyzing time-dependent curve data. Our model decomposes such data into two distinct components: a low-dimensional predictable factor component and an unpredictable error term. These…

In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919…

The focus of the present paper is to forecast mortality rates for small sub-populations that are parts of a larger super-population. In this setting the assumption is that it is possible to produce reliable forecasts for the…

Age-period-cohort (APC) models are frequently used in a variety of health and demographic related outcomes. Fitting and interpreting APC models to data in equal intervals (equal age and period widths) is non-trivial due to the structural…

Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…

Continuous-time multi-state survival models can be used to describe health-related processes over time. In the presence of interval-censored times for transitions between the living states, the likelihood is constructed using transition…

Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…

Motivated by spectral analysis of replicated brain signal time series, we propose a functional mixed effects approach to model replicate-specific spectral densities as random curves varying about a deterministic population-mean spectrum. In…

Some time series can be hierarchically organized into levels based on certain characteristics, such as geography or other attributes of interest. These series are referred to as hierarchical time series. Typically, forecasts are generated…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Long range forecasts are the starting point of many decision support systems that need to draw inference from high-level aggregate patterns on forecasted values. State of the art time-series forecasting methods are either subject to concept…

Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods…

We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…

This paper focuses on forecasting hierarchical time-series data, where each higher-level observation equals the sum of its corresponding lower-level time series. In such contexts, the forecast values should be coherent, meaning that the…

In this paper, we set up the theoretical foundations for a high-dimensional functional factor model approach in the analysis of large cross-sections (panels) of functional time series (FTS). We first establish a representation result…

Bootstrap methods for estimating the long-run covariance of stationary functional time series are considered. We introduce a versatile bootstrap method that relies on functional principal component analysis, where principal component scores…

Log-symmetric regression models are particularly useful when the response variable is continuous, strictly positive and asymmetric. In this paper, we proposed a class of log-symmetric regression models in the context of correlated errors.…

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…

This paper describes a methodology for automated univariate time series forecasting using regression trees and their ensembles: bagging and random forests. The key aspects that are addressed are: the use of an autoregressive approach and…