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The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-10-22 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde

Causal inference relies on the untestable assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Sensitivity analysis can be used to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal estimates. Among sensitivity analysis methods proposed in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-12 Yushu Zou , Liangyuan Hu , Amanda Ricciuto , Mark Deneau , Kuan Liu

We study causal inference under case-control and case-population sampling. Specifically, we focus on the binary-outcome and binary-treatment case, where the parameters of interest are causal relative and attributable risks defined via the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-10-24 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-19 Max Rubinstein , Denis Agniel , Larry Han , Marcela Horvitz-Lennon , Sharon-Lise Normand

Understanding and quantifying cause and effect is an important problem in many domains. The generally-agreed solution to this problem is to perform a randomised controlled trial. However, even when randomised controlled trials can be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-22 Graham Van Goffrier , Lucas Maystre , Ciarán Gilligan-Lee

Hazard ratios are prone to selection bias, compromising their use as causal estimands. On the other hand, the hazard difference has been shown to remain unaffected by the selection of frailty factors over time. Therefore, observed hazard…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-01 Richard Post , Edwin van den Heuvel , Hein Putter

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

Causal modeling provides us with powerful counterfactual reasoning and interventional mechanism to generate predictions and reason under various what-if scenarios. However, causal discovery using observation data remains a nontrivial task…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-06 Jawad Chowdhury , Rezaur Rashid , Gabriel Terejanu

One of the basic aims in science is to unravel the chain of cause and effect of particular systems. Especially for large systems this can be a daunting task. Detailed interventional and randomized data sampling approaches can be used to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-11-30 Seyed Mahdi Mahmoudi , Ernst Wit

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-03 Zhixuan Chu , Jianmin Huang , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu , Sheng Li

Estimation of causal effects is fundamental in situations were the underlying system will be subject to active interventions. Part of building a causal inference engine is defining how variables relate to each other, that is, defining the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-02 Sergio Garrido , Stanislav S. Borysov , Jeppe Rich , Francisco C. Pereira

This paper develops a framework for identification, estimation, and inference on the causal mechanisms driving endogenous social network formation. Identification is challenging because of unobserved confounders and reverse causality;…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-21 Maximilian Kasy , Elizabeth Linos , Sanaz Mobasseri

To make effective decisions, it is important to have a thorough understanding of the causal relationships among actions, environments, and outcomes. This review aims to surface three crucial aspects of decision-making through a causal lens:…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-22 Lin Ge , Hengrui Cai , Runzhe Wan , Yang Xu , Rui Song

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah

Strip-plot designs are very useful when the treatments have a factorial structure and the factors levels are hard-to-change. We develop a randomization-based theory of causal inference from such designs in a potential outcomes framework.…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-05-18 Fatemah A. Alquallaf , S. Huda , Rahul Mukerjee

Predicting the effect of unseen interventions is a fundamental research question across the data sciences. It is well established that in general such questions cannot be answered definitively from observational data. This realization has…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-27 Alexis Bellot

Causal identification is at the core of the causal inference literature, where complete algorithms have been proposed to identify causal queries of interest. The validity of these algorithms hinges on the restrictive assumption of having…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-30 Sina Akbari , Fateme Jamshidi , Ehsan Mokhtarian , Matthew J. Vowels , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-19 Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Frances Ding , Yixin Wang

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Donald B. Rubin

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…