相关论文: Bayesian inference for the stochastic identificati…

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical…

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…

We provide a comprehensive semi-parametric study of Bayesian partially identified econometric models. While the existing literature on Bayesian partial identification has mostly focused on the structural parameter, our primary focus is on…

Identifying tire and vehicle parameters is an essential step in designing control and planning algorithms for autonomous vehicles. This paper proposes a new method: Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), a modern interpretation of Approximate…

Stochastic process discovery is concerned with deriving a model capable of reproducing the stochastic character of observed executions of a given process, stored in a log. This leads to an optimisation problem in which the model's parameter…

In this study, we propose a novel microstructure-sensitive Bayesian optimization (BO) framework designed to enhance the efficiency of materials discovery by explicitly incorporating microstructural information. Traditional materials design…

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

In solid-state materials science, substantial efforts have been devoted to the calculation and modeling of the electronic band gap. While a wide range of ab initio methods and machine learning algorithms have been created that can predict…

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical…

Prediction-powered inference (PPI) is a method that improves statistical estimates based on limited human-labeled data. Specifically, PPI methods provide tighter confidence intervals by combining small amounts of human-labeled data with…

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

The original formulation of BEAMS - Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species - showed how to use a dataset contaminated by points of multiple underlying types to perform unbiased parameter estimation. An example is cosmological…

In causal estimation problems, the parameter of interest is often only partially identified, implying that the parameter cannot be recovered exactly, even with infinite data. Here, we study Bayesian inference for partially identified…

We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to…

Due to their great flexibility, nonparametric Bayes methods have proven to be a valuable tool for discovering complicated patterns in data. The term "nonparametric Bayes" suggests that these methods inherit model-free operating…

Quality control in industrial processes is increasingly making use of prior scientific knowledge, often encoded in physical models that require numerical approximation. Statistical prediction, and subsequent optimization, is key to ensuring…

We propose a computational framework, Hetero-EUCLID, for segmentation and parameter identification to characterize the full hyperelastic behavior of all constituents of a heterogeneous material. In this work, we leverage the Bayesian-EUCLID…