相关论文: Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki S…

Rich data generating mechanisms are ubiquitous in this age of information and require complex statistical models to draw meaningful inference. While Bayesian analysis has seen enormous development in the last 30 years, benefitting from the…

The 21st century has seen an enormous growth in the development and use of approximate Bayesian methods. Such methods produce computational solutions to certain intractable statistical problems that challenge exact methods like Markov chain…

Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual…

While Robert and Rousseau (2010) addressed the foundational aspects of Bayesian analysis, the current chapter details its practical aspects through a review of the computational methods available for approximating Bayesian procedures.…

Mathematical epidemiological models have a broad use, including both qualitative and quantitative applications. With the increasing availability of data, large-scale quantitative disease spread models can nowadays be formulated. Such models…

Mechanistic models are essential tools across ecology, epidemiology, and the life sciences, but parameter inference remains challenging when likelihood functions are intractable. Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo…

Controlled branching processes are stochastic growth population models in which the number of individuals with reproductive capacity in each generation is controlled by a random control function. The purpose of this work is to examine the…

We are living in the big data era, as current technologies and networks allow for the easy and routine collection of data sets in different disciplines. Bayesian Statistics offers a flexible modeling approach which is attractive for…

This article presents a Bayesian inferential method where the likelihood for a model is unknown but where data can easily be simulated from the model. We discretize simulated (continuous) data to estimate the implicit likelihood in a…

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time…

A maximum likelihood methodology for a general class of models is presented, using an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The typical target of ABC methods are models with intractable likelihoods, and we combine an ABC-MCMC…

This lecture note provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for parameter estimation in epidemic models. Using the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes (MJPs) where available observations relate to either system states or jumps typically relies on data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo. State-of-the-art developments involve representing MJP…

Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in…

We propose a generative model and an inference scheme for epidemic processes on dynamic, adaptive contact networks. Network evolution is formulated as a link-Markovian process, which is then coupled to an individual-level stochastic SIR…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…

Infectious disease transmission is often modelled by discrete-valued stochastic state-transition processes. Due to a lack of complete data, Bayesian inference for these models often relies on data-augmentation techniques. These techniques…

This paper introduces and reviews some of the principles and methods used in Bayesian reliability. It specifically discusses methods used in the analysis of success/no-success data and then reminds the reader of a simple Monte Carlo…