相关论文: Gaussian Processes for Local Polynomial Forecastin…

We introduce a Gaussian process-based model for handling of non-stationarity. The warping is achieved non-parametrically, through imposing a prior on the relative change of distance between subsequent observation inputs. The model allows…

A large collection of time series poses significant challenges for classical and neural forecasting approaches. Classical time series models fail to fit data well and to scale to large problems, but succeed at providing uncertainty…

Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine…

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

The increased demand for online prediction and the growing availability of large data sets drives the need for computationally efficient models. While exact Gaussian process regression shows various favorable theoretical properties…

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…

In this work we review the application of the theory of Gaussian processes to the modeling of noise in pulsar-timing data analysis, and we derive various useful and optimized representations for the likelihood expressions that are needed in…

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…

A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Locally weighted regression was created as a nonparametric learning method that is computationally efficient, can learn from very large amounts of data and add data incrementally. An interesting feature of locally weighted regression is…

Gaussian processes (GP) are a widely used model for regression problems in supervised machine learning. Implementation of GP regression typically requires $O(n^3)$ logic gates. We show that the quantum linear systems algorithm [Harrow et…

Developments in Deep Learning have significantly improved time series forecasting by enabling more accurate modeling of complex temporal dependencies inherent in sequential data. The effectiveness of such models is often demonstrated on…

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a fundamental model used in machine learning. Owing to its accurate prediction with uncertainty and versatility in handling various data structures via kernels, GPR has been successfully used in various…

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

A Gaussian process is proposed as a model for the posterior distribution of the local predictive ability of a model or expert, conditional on a vector of covariates, from historical predictions in the form of log predictive scores. Assuming…