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The Bayesian posterior minimizes the "inferential risk" which itself bounds the "predictive risk". This bound is tight when the likelihood and prior are well-specified. However since misspecification induces a gap, the Bayesian posterior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-24 Warren R. Morningstar , Alexander A. Alemi , Joshua V. Dillon

We study the problem of aggregation under the squared loss in the model of regression with deterministic design. We obtain sharp PAC-Bayesian risk bounds for aggregates defined via exponential weights, under general assumptions on the…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-03-25 Arnak Dalalyan , Alexandre Tsybakov

We present new M-estimators of the mean and variance of real valued random variables, based on PAC-Bayes bounds. We analyze the non-asymptotic minimax properties of the deviations of those estimators for sample distributions having either a…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-08-15 Olivier Catoni

Covariance matrix estimation concerns the problem of estimating the covariance matrix from a collection of samples, which is of extreme importance in many applications. Classical results have shown that $O(n)$ samples are sufficient to…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2019-03-19 Wei Cui , Xu Zhang , Yulong Liu

Understanding the generalization behavior of deep neural networks remains a fundamental challenge in modern statistical learning theory. Among existing approaches, PAC-Bayesian norm-based bounds have demonstrated particular promise due to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-14 Xinping Yi , Gaojie Jin , Xiaowei Huang , Shi Jin

We consider robust covariance estimation with group symmetry constraints. Non-Gaussian covariance estimation, e.g., Tyler scatter estimator and Multivariate Generalized Gaussian distribution methods, usually involve non-convex minimization…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-06-19 Ilya Soloveychik , Ami Wiesel

PAC-Bayesian bounds are known to be tight and informative when studying the generalization ability of randomized classifiers. However, they require a loose and costly derandomization step when applied to some families of deterministic…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-09-19 Paul Viallard , Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , Emilie Morvant

This paper considers the problem of matrix-variate logistic regression. It derives the fundamental error threshold on estimating low-rank coefficient matrices in the logistic regression problem by obtaining a lower bound on the minimax…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-10 Batoul Taki , Mohsen Ghassemi , Anand D. Sarwate , Waheed U. Bajwa

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-08-27 David Reeb , Andreas Doerr , Sebastian Gerwinn , Barbara Rakitsch

Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) -- this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-10-30 Paul Viallard , Maxime Haddouche , Umut Şimşekli , Benjamin Guedj

This paper contains a recipe for deriving new PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds based on the $(f, \Gamma)$-divergence, and, in addition, presents PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds where we interpolate between a series of probability divergences…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-08 Paul Viallard , Maxime Haddouche , Umut Şimşekli , Benjamin Guedj

The Bayesian Conjugate Gradient method (BayesCG) is a probabilistic generalization of the Conjugate Gradient method (CG) for solving linear systems with real symmetric positive definite coefficient matrices. Our CG-based implementation of…

数值分析 · 数学 2022-10-04 Tim W. Reid , Ilse C. F. Ipsen , Jon Cockayne , Chris J. Oates

In this paper, we study non-asymptotic deviation bounds of the least squares estimator in Gaussian AR($n$) processes. By relying on martingale concentration inequalities and a tail-bound for $\chi^2$ distributed variables, we provide a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-05-26 Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

We discuss probabilistic models of random covariance structures defined by distributions over sparse eigenmatrices. The decomposition of orthogonal matrices in terms of Givens rotations defines a natural, interpretable framework for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-07 Andrew J. Cron , Mike West

We consider estimation of a sparse parameter vector that determines the covariance matrix of a Gaussian random vector via a sparse expansion into known "basis matrices". Using the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, we derive lower…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2011-01-21 Alexander Jung , Sebastian Schmutzhard , Franz Hlawatsch , Alfred O. Hero

In the PAC-Bayesian literature, the C-Bound refers to an insightful relation between the risk of a majority vote classifier (under the zero-one loss) and the first two moments of its margin (i.e., the expected margin and the voters'…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-09-01 Paul Viallard , Pascal Germain , Amaury Habrard , Emilie Morvant

We consider the problem of robustly predicting as well as the best linear combination of $d$ given functions in least squares regression, and variants of this problem including constraints on the parameters of the linear combination. For…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-02-24 Jean-Yves Audibert , Olivier Catoni

We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-02-14 Pascal Germain , Francis Bach , Alexandre Lacoste , Simon Lacoste-Julien

Given a real matrix A with n columns, the problem is to approximate the Gram product AA^T by c << n weighted outer products of columns of A. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the exact computation of AA^T (in exact arithmetic) from c…

数值分析 · 数学 2014-05-16 John T. Holodnak , Ilse C. F. Ipsen

This paper expands the analysis of randomized low-rank approximation beyond the Gaussian distribution to four classes of random matrices: (1) independent sub-Gaussian entries, (2) independent sub-Gaussian columns, (3) independent bounded…

数值分析 · 数学 2023-08-14 Arvind K. Saibaba , Agnieszka Międlar