相关论文: Epidemiological geographic profiling for a meta-po…

Since social interactions have been shown to lead to symmetric clusters, we propose here that symmetries play a key role in epidemic modeling. Mathematical models on d-ary tree graphs were recently shown to be particularly effective for…

Urban research has long recognized that neighbourhoods are dynamic and relational. However, lack of data, methodologies, and computer processing power have hampered a formal quantitative examination of neighbourhood relational dynamics. To…

Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT…

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…

We study the datafor the cumulative as well as daily number of cases in the Covid-19 outbreak in China. The cumulative data can be fit to an empirical form obtained from a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model studied on an Euclidean…

Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…

Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…

The dynamic monitoring of commuting flows is crucial for improving transit systems in fast-developing cities around the world. However, existing methodology to infer commuting originations and destinations have to either rely on large-scale…

The interplay of biological, social, structural and random factors makes disease forecasting extraordinarily complex. The course of an epidemic exhibits average growth dynamics determined by features of the pathogen and the population, yet…

We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we…

We calculate epidemic thresholds and investigate the dynamics of a disease in a networked metapopulation model. To study the specific role of mobility levels and network geometry, we utilize the SIR-Network model and consider a range of…

Researchers, policy makers, and engineers need to make sense of data on spreading processes as diverse as viral infections, water contamination, and misinformation in social networks. Classical questions include predicting infection…

Most centralities proposed for identifying influential spreaders on social networks to either spread a message or to stop an epidemic require the full topological information of the network on which spreading occurs. In practice, however,…

Locating the source of an epidemic, or patient zero (P0), can provide critical insights into the infection's transmission course and allow efficient resource allocation. Existing methods use graph-theoretic centrality measures and expensive…

Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…

Real-time monitoring and responses to emerging public health threats rely on the availability of timely surveillance data. During the early stages of an epidemic, the ready availability of line lists with detailed tabular information about…

Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large…

Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…

A method for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission is developed for a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the…

Infectious or contagious diseases can be transmitted from one person to another through social contact networks. In today's interconnected global society, such contagion processes can cause global public health hazards, as exemplified by…