相关论文: Statistical models for dynamics in extreme value p…

We show that extremal dynamics is very well modelled by the "Linear Fractional Stable Motion" (LFSM), a stochastic process entirely defined by two exponents that take into account spatio-temporal correlations in the distribution of active…

Time-to-event models are a popular tool to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time to the occurrence of a specific event of interest. Here we focus on the analysis of time-to-event outcomes that are either intrisically discrete…

Classical models for multivariate or spatial extremes are mainly based upon the asymptotically justified max-stable or generalized Pareto processes. These models are suitable when asymptotic dependence is present, i.e., the joint tail…

We introduce a novel model for time-varying, asymmetric, tail-dependent copulas in high dimensions that incorporates both spectral dynamics and regularization. The dynamics of the dependence matrix' eigenvalues are modeled in a score-driven…

A factor copula model is proposed in which factors are either simulable or estimable from exogenous information. Point estimation and inference are based on a simulated methods of moments (SMM) approach with non-overlapping simulation…

We consider the problem of modeling the dependence among many time series. We build high dimensional time-varying copula models by combining pair-copula constructions (PCC) with stochastic autoregressive copula (SCAR) models to capture…

Many types of bounded data defined on the unit interval arise naturally as ratios of the form $X/(X + Y)$. In the existing literature, the main statistical models proposed for this type of bounded data typically based on the assumption that…

This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…

This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…

We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…

Real-world dynamical systems often consist of multiple stochastic subsystems that interact with each other. Modeling and forecasting the behavior of such dynamics are generally not easy, due to the inherent hardness in understanding the…

Modelling the extremal dependence structure of spatial data is considerably easier if that structure is stationary. However, for data observed over large or complicated domains, non-stationarity will often prevail. Current methods for…

We develop a class of exponential-family point processes based on a latent social space to model the coevolution of social structure and behavior over time. Temporal dynamics are modeled as a discrete Markov process specified through…

We develop a novel multi-factor copula model for multivariate spatial extremes, which is designed to capture the different combinations of marginal and cross-extremal dependence structures within and across different spatial random fields.…

Extremal dependence between international stock markets is of particular interest in today's global financial landscape. However, previous studies have shown this dependence is not necessarily stationary over time. We concern ourselves with…

We introduce a new formulation of structural causal models for extremes, called the extremal structural causal model (eSCM). Unlike conventional structural causal models, where randomness is governed by a probability distribution, eSCMs use…

Extreme events with potential deadly outcomes, such as those organized by terror groups, are highly unpredictable in nature and an imminent threat to society. In particular, quantifying the likelihood of a terror attack occurring in an…

Non-stationary extremal dependence, whereby the relationship between the extremes of multiple variables evolves over time, is commonly observed in many environmental and financial data sets. However, most multivariate extreme value models…

Many real-world dynamical systems can be described as State-Space Models (SSMs). In this formulation, each observation is emitted by a latent state, which follows first-order Markovian dynamics. A Probabilistic Deep SSM (ProDSSM)…

Sociotechnological and geospatial processes exhibit time varying structure that make insight discovery challenging. This paper proposes a new statistical model for such systems, modeled as dynamic networks, to address this challenge. It…