相关论文: On asymptotic validity of naive inference with an …

Laplace's method, a family of asymptotic methods used to approximate integrals, is presented as a potential candidate for the tool box of techniques used for knowledge acquisition and probabilistic inference in belief networks with…

Spatial-temporal linear model and the corresponding likelihood-based statistical inference are important tools for the analysis of spatial-temporal lattice data. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood…

We present non-asymptotic two-sided bounds to the log-marginal likelihood in Bayesian inference. The classical Laplace approximation is recovered as the leading term. Our derivation permits model misspecification and allows the parameter…

Laplace's method is used to approximate intractable integrals in a statistical problems. The relative error rate of the approximation is not worse than $O_p(n^{-1})$. We provide the first statistical lower bounds showing that the $n^{-1}$…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

Latent variable models for ordinal data represent a useful tool in different fields of research in which the constructs of interest are not directly observable. In such models, problems related to the integration of the likelihood function…

Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised.…

Many models require integrals of high-dimensional functions: for instance, to obtain marginal likelihoods. Such integrals may be intractable, or too expensive to compute numerically. Instead, we can use the Laplace approximation (LA). The…

We outline how modern likelihood theory, which provides essentially exact inferences in a variety of parametric statistical problems, may routinely be applied in practice. Although the likelihood procedures are based on analytical…

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models…

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

Likelihood-based methods of statistical inference provide a useful general methodology that is appealing, as a straightforward asymptotic theory can be applied for their implementation. It is important to assess the relationships between…

Latent space models have been widely adopted in modeling network data. Developing statistical inference for estimated model parameters enables quantifying associated uncertainty and is pivotal for downstream tasks. Despite recent progress…

Complex models used to describe biological processes in epidemiology and ecology often have computationally intractable or expensive likelihoods. This poses significant challenges in terms of Bayesian inference but more significantly in the…

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…

"Asymptotic formulae for likelihood-based tests of new physics" presents a mathematical formalism for a new approximation for hypothesis testing in high energy physics. The approximations are designed to greatly reduce the computational…

Computing the probability of a formula given the probabilities or weights associated with other formulas is a natural extension of logical inference to the probabilistic setting. Surprisingly, this problem has received little attention in…

Bayesian inference on non-Gaussian data is often non-analytic and requires computationally expensive approximations such as sampling or variational inference. We propose an approximate inference framework primarily designed to be…

An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…