相关论文: Trends in sea-ice variability on the way to an ice…

Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…

Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we…

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…

The Arctic sea ice cover has significantly declined over the recent decades. The debate on whether this decline is caused by anthropogenic activity or internal cycles is still ongoing. However, despite this uncertainty, some physical…

There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a `tipping point', or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation,…

Since the beginning of satellite observations, the Arctic sea ice extent has shown a downward trend. The decline has been weaker in the March maximum than in the September minimum and masked by inter-annual fluctuations. One of the less…

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we…

The variation in the Arctic sea ice is dominated by the seasonal cycle with little inter-annual correlation. Though the mean sea ice area has decreased steadily in the period of satellite observations, a dramatic transition in the dynamics…

Arctic sea ice is rapidly retreating due to global warming, and emerging evidence suggests that the rate of decline may have been underestimated. A key factor contributing to this underestimation is the coarse resolution of current climate…

Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…

Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…

As Arctic sea ice extent decreases with increasing greenhouse gases, there is a growing interest in whether there could be a bifurcation associated with its loss, and whether there is significant hysteresis associated with that bifurcation.…

We analyze the numerical solutions of a stochastic Arctic sea ice model with constant additive noise over a wide range of external heat-fluxes, $\Delta F_0$, which correspond to greenhouse gas forcing. The variability that the stochasticity…

Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…

The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the…

Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative…

The rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Dynamics of Arctic weather variability (WV) plays a crucial role in weather forecasting and is closely related to extreme weather…

Seasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice concentration is key to mitigate the negative impact and assess potential opportunities posed by the rapid decline of sea ice coverage. Seasonal prediction systems based on climate models often show…