相关论文: Identification of Risk Extreme Values in a Time Se…

This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…

Extreme value applications commonly employ regression techniques to capture cross-sectional heterogeneity or time-variation in the data. Estimation of the parameters of an extreme value regression model is notoriously challenging due to the…

Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…

Extreme events are of great importance since they often represent impactive occurrences. For instance, in terms of climate and weather, extreme events might be major storms, floods, extreme heat or cold waves, and more. However, they are…

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is often required for risk assessment of natural hazards in climate and geo-environmental sciences and for quantitative risk management in statistical finance, econometrics, and actuarial…

Time series prediction with missing values is an important problem of time series analysis since complete data is usually hard to obtain in many real-world applications. To model the generation of time series, autoregressive (AR) model is a…

The processes of the averaged regression quantiles and of their modifications provide useful tools in the regression models when the covariates are not fully under our control. As an application we mention the probabilistic risk assessment…

We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Risk management in many environmental settings requires an understanding of the mechanisms that drive extreme events. Useful metrics for quantifying such risk are extreme quantiles of response variables conditioned on predictor variables…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

We propose a novel strategy for multivariate extreme value index estimation. In applications such as finance, volatility and risk present in the components of a multivariate time series are often driven by the same underlying factors, such…

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…

The analysis of event time series is in general challenging. Most time series analysis tools are limited for the analysis of this kind of data. Recurrence analysis, a powerful concept from nonlinear time series analysis, provides several…

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

In the domain of time series analysis, particularly in event detection tasks, current methodologies predominantly rely on segmentation-based approaches, which predict the class label for each individual timesteps and use the changepoints of…

In this study, we propose an approach for predicting rare events by exploiting time series in coevolution. Our approach involves a weighted autologistic regression model, where we leverage the temporal behavior of the data to enhance…

Detecting anomalies in a temporal sequence of graphs can be applied is areas such as the detection of accidents in transport networks and cyber attacks in computer networks. Existing methods for detecting abnormal graphs can suffer from…