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We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-13 David T. Frazier , Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , Bonsoo Koo

We present a Bayesian data fusion method to approximate a posterior distribution from an ensemble of particle estimates that only have access to subsets of the data. Our approach relies on approximate probabilistic inference of model…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-10-28 Caleb Miller , Michael D. Schneider , Jem N. Corcoran , Jason Bernstein

Gaussian and discrete non-Gaussian spatial datasets are common across fields like public health, ecology, geosciences, and social sciences. Bayesian spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) are a flexible class of models for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-27 Jin Hyung Lee , Ben Seiyon Lee

We propose a multiple imputation method based on principal component analysis (PCA) to deal with incomplete continuous data. To reflect the uncertainty of the parameters from one imputation to the next, we use a Bayesian treatment of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-08-20 Vincent Audigier , François Husson , Julie Josse

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quantity from multiple data sources. When the corresponding variances of each estimate are also available, a model should take into account the uncertainty of the estimates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-17 Yujing Yao , R. Todd Ogden , Chubing Zeng , Qixuan Chen

We study the desiderata on a model for statistical probabilistic programming languages. We argue that they can be met by a combination of traditional tools, namely open bisimulation and probabilistic simulation.

计算机科学中的逻辑 · 计算机科学 2024-03-26 Radha Jagadeesan

Multilevel linear models allow flexible statistical modelling of complex data with different levels of stratification. Identifying the most appropriate model from the large set of possible candidates is a challenging problem. In the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-15 Tom Edinburgh , Ari Ercole , Stephen J. Eglen

We present a novel approach for estimating conditional probability tables, based on a joint, rather than independent, estimate of the conditional distributions belonging to the same table. We derive exact analytical expressions for the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-08-05 L. Azzimonti , G. Corani , M. Zaffalon

Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…

统计计算 · 统计学 2009-01-15 Tina Toni , David Welch , Natalja Strelkowa , Andreas Ipsen , Michael P. H. Stumpf

We describe a method for Bayesian optimization by which one may incorporate data from multiple systems whose quantitative interrelationships are unknown a priori. All general (nonreal-valued) features of the systems are associated with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-01-06 Steven Atkinson , Sayan Ghosh , Natarajan Chennimalai-Kumar , Genghis Khan , Liping Wang

The article addresses a long-standing open problem on the justification of using variational Bayes methods for parameter estimation. We provide general conditions for obtaining optimal risk bounds for point estimates acquired from…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-12-27 Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , Yun Yang

We discuss the problem of estimating the number of principal components in Principal Com- ponents Analysis (PCA). Despite of the importance of the problem and the multitude of solutions proposed in the literature, it comes as a surprise…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-07-06 Piotr Sobczyk , Malgorzata Bogdan , Julie Josse

The goal of this paper is to show how different machine learning tools on the Riemannian manifold $\mathcal{P}_d$ of Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices can be united under a probabilistic framework. For this, we will need several…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-04 Thibault de Surrel , Florian Yger , Fabien Lotte , Sylvain Chevallier

Approving and assessing new drugs is complex because multiple criteria must be considered simultaneously. A common approach is benefit-risk analysis, often conducted within a Bayesian framework to account for uncertainty and combine data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Konstantinos Vamvourellis , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Lawrence Phillips

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

Clustering of proteins is of interest in cancer cell biology. This article proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model for protein (variable) clustering hinging on correlation structure. Starting from a multivariate normal likelihood, we enforce…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-02-09 Riddhi Pratim Ghosh , Arnab Kumar Maity , Mohsen Pourahmadi , Bani K. Mallick

It is proposed in the literature that in some complicated problems maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are not suitable or even do not exist. An alternative to MLE for estimation of the parameters is the Bayesian method. The Markov chain…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-10-08 Ali Reza Fotouhi

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are increasingly used in longitudinal data analysis, compartmental models, growth modelling, and other applications in a number of disciplines. Parameter estimation, however, currently requires…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-12 Oscar García

The paper considers the problem of establishing data support for the simplifying assumption (SA) in a bivariate conditional copula model. It is known that SA greatly simplifies the inference for a conditional copula model, but standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-09-30 Evgeny Levi , Radu V Craiu