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We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection $\{(S_i,l_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where each $S_i$ is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of $X_i…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-05-20 David Lopez-Paz , Krikamol Muandet , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ilya Tolstikhin

I argue that regularizing terms in standard regression methods not only help against overfitting finite data, but sometimes also yield better causal models in the infinite sample regime. I first consider a multi-dimensional variable…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-01 Dominik Janzing

Decision-making tasks often unfold on graphs with spatial-temporal dynamics. Black-box reinforcement learning often overlooks how local changes spread through network structure, limiting sample efficiency and interpretability. We present…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-01-07 Hadi Partovi Aria , Zhe Xu

The tetrad constraint is a condition of which the satisfaction signals a rank reduction of a covariance submatrix and is used to design causal discovery algorithms that detects the existence of latent (unmeasured) variables, such as FOFC.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-09-30 Shuyan Wang

The paper proposes a causal supervised machine learning algorithm to uncover treatment effect heterogeneity in sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs. We develop a criterion for building an honest ``regression discontinuity…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-01 Ágoston Reguly

Causal Disentangled Representation Learning(CDRL) aims to learn and disentangle low dimensional representations and their underlying causal structure from observations. However, existing disentanglement methods rely on a standard mean-field…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Yutao Jin , Yuang Tao , Junyong Zhai

We present a workflow for clinical data analysis that relies on Bayesian Structure Learning (BSL), an unsupervised learning approach, robust to noise and biases, that allows to incorporate prior medical knowledge into the learning process…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-12 Elisa Ferrari , Luna Gargani , Greta Barbieri , Lorenzo Ghiadoni , Francesco Faita , Davide Bacciu

The Linear Threshold Model is a widely used model that describes how information diffuses through a social network. According to this model, an individual adopts an idea or product after the proportion of their neighbors who have adopted it…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2022-01-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

When observational data is available from practical studies and a directed cyclic graph for how various variables affect each other is known based on substantive understanding of the process, we consider a problem in which a control plan of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-06-26 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

Causal machine learning (CML) has experienced increasing popularity in healthcare. Beyond the inherent capabilities of adding domain knowledge into learning systems, CML provides a complete toolset for investigating how a system would react…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-01 Pedro Sanchez , Jeremy P. Voisey , Tian Xia , Hannah I. Watson , Alison Q. ONeil , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

Causal discovery procedures aim to deduce causal relationships among variables in a multivariate dataset. While various methods have been proposed for estimating a single causal model or a single equivalence class of models, less attention…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-08 Y. Samuel Wang , Mladen Kolar , Mathias Drton

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

We investigate the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment variable on an outcome in the presence of a latent confounder. We first show that the causal effect is identifiable under certain conditions when data is available from…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-06-16 Yaroslav Kivva , Sina Akbari , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

In this survey we discuss the recent causal panel data literature. This recent literature has focused on credibly estimating causal effects of binary interventions in settings with longitudinal data, emphasizing practical advice for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-06-26 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido Imbens

In modeling multivariate time series for either forecast or policy analysis, it would be beneficial to have figured out the cause-effect relations within the data. Regression analysis, however, is generally for correlation relation, and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-23 Xingwei Hu

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-30 Divyat Mahajan , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Brady Neal , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Standard regression adjustment gives inconsistent estimates of causal effects when there are time-varying treatment effects and time-varying covariates. Loosely speaking, the issue is that some covariates are post-treatment variables…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-12 Stephen Bates , Edward Kennedy , Robert Tibshirani , Valerie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

This thesis develops methods for causal inference and causal representation learning (CRL) in high-dimensional, time-varying data. The first contribution introduces the Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE), a model for estimating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-05 Mouad EL Bouchattaoui

Posterior sampling allows exploitation of prior knowledge on the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-09 Mirco Mutti , Riccardo De Santi , Marcello Restelli , Alexander Marx , Giorgia Ramponi