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In this chapter, we address the challenge of exploring the posterior distributions of Bayesian inverse problems with computationally intensive forward models. We consider various multivariate proposal distributions, and compare them with…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-05-02 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Colin Fox , Dave Higdon , C. Shane Reese , J. David Moulton

The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-10 Estevão Prado , Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

Metropolis-Hastings (MH) is a foundational Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to formulate and analyse MH in terms of categorical probability, using a recent involutive framework for…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-02-02 Rob Cornish , Andi Q. Wang

This paper proposes an Adaptive Learning Model Predictive Control strategy for uncertain constrained linear systems performing iterative tasks. The additive uncertainty is modeled as the sum of a bounded process noise and an unknown…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2018-04-27 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Xiaojing Zhang , Ugo Rosolia , Francesco Borrelli

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

Monte Carlo inference has asymptotic guarantees, but can be slow when using generic proposals. Handcrafted proposals that rely on user knowledge about the posterior distribution can be efficient, but are difficult to derive and implement.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2018-01-16 Marco F. Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K. Mansinghka

The Min-Hashing approach to sketching has become an important tool in data analysis, information retrial, and classification. To apply it to real-valued datasets, the ICWS algorithm has become a seminal approach that is widely used, and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-24 Edward Raff , Jared Sylvester , Charles Nicholas

In the world of embedded systems, optimizing actions with the uncertain costs of multiple resources is a complex challenge. Existing methods include plan building based on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), an approach that thrives in multiple…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-07-18 Franco Cordeiro , Samuel Tardieu , Laurent Pautet

In this paper, we address the challenge of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms within the approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework, which often get trapped in local optima due to their inherent local exploration mechanism. We…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Xuefei Cao , Shijia Wang , Yongdao Zhou

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are foundational algorithms for Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. However, most MCMC algorithms are inherently sequential and their time complexity scales linearly with the sequence…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-12-03 David M. Zoltowski , Skyler Wu , Xavier Gonzalez , Leo Kozachkov , Scott W. Linderman

We develop a simulation-based method for the online updating of Gaussian process regression and classification models. Our method exploits sequential Monte Carlo to produce a fast sequential design algorithm for these models relative to the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-07-07 Robert B. Gramacy , Nicholas G. Polson

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-01-06 Christophe Andrieu , Sinan Yıldırım , Arnaud Doucet , Nicolas Chopin

An MCMC simulation method based on a two stage delayed rejection Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is proposed to estimate a factor multivariate stochastic volatility model. The first stage uses kstep iteration towards the mode, with k small,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-02-11 Weijun Xu , Li Yang , Robert Kohn

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a class of algorithms to sample complex and high-dimensional probability distributions. The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, the workhorse of MCMC, provides a simple recipe to construct reversible…

Recent advances in random linear systems on finite fields have paved the way for the construction of constant-time data structures representing static functions and minimal perfect hash functions using less space with respect to existing…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2016-03-24 Marco Genuzio , Giuseppe Ottaviano , Sebastiano Vigna

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-09-29 Paul Fearnhead , Joris Bierkens , Murray Pollock , Gareth O Roberts

Predicting the complexity of source code is essential for software development and algorithm analysis. Recently, Baik et al. (2025) introduced CodeComplex for code time complexity prediction. The paper shows that LLMs without fine-tuning…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-13 Joonghyuk Hahn , Soohan Lim , Yo-Sub Han

This paper proposes to decouple performance optimization and enforcement of asymptotic convergence in Model Predictive Control (MPC) so that convergence to a given terminal set is achieved independently of how much performance is optimized…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2015-03-02 Alberto Bemporad , Daniele Bernardini , Panagiotis Patrinos

Optimization-based controllers, such as Model Predictive Control (MPC), have attracted significant research interest due to their intuitive concept, constraint handling capabilities, and natural application to multi-input multi-output…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-10-24 S. A. N. Nouwens , M. M. Paulides , W. P. M. H. Heemels

Continuous POMDPs with general belief-dependent rewards are notoriously difficult to solve online. In this paper, we present a complete provable theory of adaptive multilevel simplification for the setting of a given externally constructed…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-05-24 Andrey Zhitnikov , Ori Sztyglic , Vadim Indelman