相关论文: Extreme event statistics of daily rainfall: Dynami…

We consider daily rainfall observations at 32 stations in the province of North Holland (the Netherlands) during 30 years. Let $T$ be the total rainfall in this area on one day. An important question is: what is the amount of rainfall $T$…

Extreme value statistics, or extreme statistics for short, refers to the statistics that characterizes rare events of either unusually high or low intensity: climate disasters like floods following extremely intense rains are among the…

Extreme precipitation is projected to become more frequent and more intense due to climate change and associated thermodynamical effects, but the local response of atmospheric circulation under future climate scenarios remains uncertain due…

We show that rain events are analogous to a variety of nonequilibrium relaxation processes in Nature such as earthquakes and avalanches. Analysis of high-resolution rain data reveals that power laws describe the number of rain events versus…

There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…

The hazard of pluvial flooding is largely influenced by the spatial and temporal dependence characteristics of precipitation. When extreme precipitation possesses strong spatial dependence, the risk of flooding is amplified due to catchment…

It is difficult to explain rainfall from ice-free clouds, because the timescale for the onset of rain showers is shorter than the mean time for collisions between microscopic water droplets. It has been suggested that raindrops are produced…

Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…

Rainfall is an important component of the climate system and its statistical properties are vital for prediction purposes. In this study, we have developed a statistical method for constructing the distribution of annual precipitation. The…

We analyze the statistics of water droplet avalanches in a continuously driven system. Distributions are obtained for avalanche size, lifetime, and time between successive avalanches, along with power spectra and return maps. For low flow…

Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying…

Changing climate signals and the continuous world population growth requires proper hydrologic risk analysis to build and operate water resource infrastructures in a sustainable way. Although modernized computational facilities are becoming…

Spatial maps of extreme precipitation are crucial in flood protection. With the aim of producing maps of precipitation return levels, we propose a novel approach to model a collection of spatially distributed time series where the…

To know the statistical distribution of a variable is an important problem in management of resources. Distributions of the power law type are observed in many real systems. However power law distributions have an infinite variance and thus…

We present a stochastic mean-reverting jump-diffusion model to simulate rainfall time series and validate it using long-term half-hourly rain fall data from the North-East region of India. The model captures the intermittent and…

Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…

Localized rain events have been found to follow power-law distributions over several decades, suggesting parallels between precipitation and seismic activity [O. Peters et al., PRL 88, 018701 (2002)]. Similar power laws can be generated by…

This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…

In many complex systems, large events are believed to follow power-law, scale-free probability distributions, so that the extreme, catastrophic events are unpredictable. Here, we study coupled chaotic oscillators that display extreme…

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…