相关论文: A State-Space Estimation of the Lee-Carter Mortali…

Undoubtedly, several countries worldwide endure to experience a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting mortality. Although several stochastic mortality models have…

This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a…

This article applies a long short-term memory recurrent neural network to mortality rate forecasting. The model can be trained jointly on the mortality rate history of different countries, ages, and sexes. The RNN-based method seems to…

The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…

In many countries life expectancy gains have been substantially higher than predicted by even recent forecasts. This is primarily due to increasing rates of improvement in old-age mortality not captured by existing models. In this paper we…

We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…

The aim of this paper is to propose a realistic and operational model to quantify the systematic risk of mortality included in an engagement of retirement. The model presented is built on the basis of model of Lee-Carter. The stochastic…

The predominant way of modelling mortality rates is the Lee-Carter model and its many extensions. The Lee-Carter model and its many extensions use a latent process to forecast. These models are estimated using a two-step procedure that…

The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…

Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- and region-specific seasonal effects and penalized distributed…

High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals…

In this article, we have modeled mortality rates of Peruvian female and male populations during the period of 1950-2017 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model. The stochastic mortality model was introduced by Lee and Carter (1992) and has been…

An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can be taken place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to…

Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous applications amongst which we find stochastic mortality modelling, forecasting of death causes as well as profit and loss…

This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…

Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader…

Mortality forecasting methods in the Lee-Carter tradition extrapolate temporal components via time-series models, often producing forecasts that systematically underpredict life expectancy at long horizons. This bias is consequential for…

This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term annuities, away from classical no-arbitrage valuation towards valuation under the real world probability measure. Furthermore, we apply this valuation method to two examples…

A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…

The aim of this paper is to study the construction of prospective mortality tables from a low number of persons subjected to risk. The presented models are the Lee-Carter and log-Poisson methods respectively. The low number of people…