相关论文: When Doesn't Cokriging Outperform Kriging?

Machine learning-based reliability analysis methods have shown great advancements for their computational efficiency and accuracy. Recently, many efficient learning strategies have been proposed to enhance the computational performance.…

When the performance of a team of agents exceeds our expectations or fall short of them, we often explain this by saying that there was some synergy in the team---either positive (the team exceeded our expectations) or negative (they fell…

Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…

Machine learning systems increasingly depend on pipelines of multiple algorithms to provide high quality and well structured predictions. This paper argues interaction effects between clustering and prediction (e.g. classification,…

Development of several alternative mathematical models for the biological system in question and discrimination between such models using experimental data is the best way to robust conclusions. Models which challenge existing theories are…

There is emerging interest in performing regression between distributions. In contrast to prediction on single instances, these machine learning methods can be useful for population-based studies or on problems that are inherently…

This paper presents a theory of error in cross-validation testing of algorithms for predicting real-valued attributes. The theory justifies the claim that predicting real-valued attributes requires balancing the conflicting demands of…

We study the problem of corralling stochastic bandit algorithms, that is combining multiple bandit algorithms designed for a stochastic environment, with the goal of devising a corralling algorithm that performs almost as well as the best…

Due to the availability of large molecular data-sets, covariance models are increasingly used to describe the structure of genetic variation as an alternative to more heavily parametrised biological models. We focus here on a class of…

Following Fisher, it is widely believed that randomization "relieves the experimenter from the anxiety of considering innumerable causes by which the data may be disturbed." In particular, it is said to control for known and unknown…

In this article, we review and compare a number of methods of spatial prediction. To demonstrate the breadth of available choices, we consider both traditional and more-recently-introduced spatial predictors. Specifically, in our exposition…

We propose a method with better predictions at extreme values than the standard method of Kriging. We construct our predictor in two ways: by penalizing the mean squared error through conditional bias and by penalizing the conditional…

We propose randomization tests of whether forecast 1 outperforms forecast 2 across a class of scoring functions. This hypothesis is of applied interest: While the prediction context often prescribes a certain class of scoring functions, it…

Context: Software engineering has a problem in that when we empirically evaluate competing prediction systems we obtain conflicting results. Objective: To reduce the inconsistency amongst validation study results and provide a more formal…

Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its apparent universality. Many results exist on the model selection performances of…

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the…

We investigate the dynamical systems modeling conflict processes between a pair of opponents. We assume that opponents are given on a common space by distributions (probability measures) having the similar or self-similar structure. Our…

Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, these were shown to systematically present a lower…

Novel reinforcement learning algorithms, or improvements on existing ones, are commonly justified by evaluating their performance on benchmark environments and are compared to an ever-changing set of standard algorithms. However, despite…

Benchmarking and establishing proper statistical validation metrics for reinforcement learning (RL) remain ongoing challenges, where no consensus has been established yet. The emergence of quantum computing and its potential applications in…