相关论文: Estimation with Aggregate Shocks

It is well known that individual parameters of strongly correlated predictor variables in a linear model cannot be accurately estimated by the least squares regression due to multicollinearity generated by such variables. Surprisingly, an…

Nowadays insurers have to account for potentially complex dependence between risks. In the field of loss reserving, there are many parametric and non-parametric models attempting to capture dependence between business lines. One common…

This paper studies a panel data setting where the goal is to estimate causal effects of an intervention by predicting the counterfactual values of outcomes for treated units, had they not received the treatment. Several approaches have been…

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure,…

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

We consider the estimation of approximate factor models for time series data, where strong serial and cross-sectional correlations amongst the idiosyncratic component are present. This setting comes up naturally in many applications, but…

Generalized linear models are flexible tools for the analysis of diverse datasets, but the classical formulation requires that the parametric component is correctly specified and the data contain no atypical observations. To address these…

The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through…

One fundamental statistical question for research areas such as precision medicine and health disparity is about discovering effect modification of treatment or exposure by observed covariates. We propose a semiparametric framework for…

In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make…

Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…

Demographic and health indicators may exhibit short or large short-term shocks; for example, armed conflicts, epidemics, or famines may cause shocks in period measures of life expectancy. Statistical models for estimating historical trends…

In the linear random effects model, when distributional assumptions such as normality of the error variables cannot be justified, moments may serve as alternatives to describe relevant distributions in neighborhoods of their means.…

Performing causal inference in observational studies requires we assume confounding variables are correctly adjusted for. G-computation methods are often used in these scenarios, with several recent proposals using Bayesian versions of…

This paper considers fixed effects estimation and inference in linear and nonlinear panel data models with random coefficients and endogenous regressors. The quantities of interest -- means, variances, and other moments of the random…

This paper studies the problem of distributed classification with a network of heterogeneous agents. The agents seek to jointly identify the underlying target class that best describes a sequence of observations. The problem is first…

In high-stakes domains like healthcare, users often expect that sharing personal information with machine learning systems will yield tangible benefits, such as more accurate diagnoses and clearer explanations of contributing factors.…

Statistical estimation in many contemporary settings involves the acquisition, analysis, and aggregation of datasets from multiple sources, which can have significant differences in character and in value. Due to these variations, the…

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

Causal inference has received great attention across different fields from economics, statistics, education, medicine, to machine learning. Within this area, inferring causal effects at individual level in observational studies has become…