相关论文: Estimation with Aggregate Shocks
A broad set of empirical phenomenon in the study of social, economic and machine behaviour can be modelled as complex systems with averaging dynamics. However many of these models naturally result in consensus or consensus-like outcomes. In…
When an individual reports a negative interaction with some system, how can their personal experience be contextualized within broader patterns of system behavior? We study the reporting database problem, where individual reports of adverse…
Causal inference is widely used in various fields, such as biology, psychology and economics, etc. In observational studies, we need to balance the covariates before estimating causal effect. This study extends the one-dimensional entropy…
A common approach to aggregate classification estimates in an ensemble of decision trees is to either use voting or to average the probabilities for each class. The latter takes uncertainty into account, but not the reliability of the…
Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…
The study of systemic risk is often presented through the analysis of several measures referring to quantities used by practitioners and policy makers. Almost invariably, those measures evaluate the size of the impact that exogenous events…
A common problem in numerous research areas, particularly in clinical trials, is to test whether the effect of an explanatory variable on an outcome variable is equivalent across different groups. In practice, these tests are frequently…
Algorithmic risk assessments are used to inform decisions in a wide variety of high-stakes settings. Often multiple predictive models deliver similar overall performance but differ markedly in their predictions for individual cases, an…
Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…
Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…
Fixed effect estimators of nonlinear panel data models suffer from the incidental parameter problem. This leads to two undesirable consequences in applied research: (1) point estimates are subject to large biases, and (2) confidence…
The design of experiments in psychology can often be summarized to participants reacting to stimuli. For such an experiment, the mixed effects model with crossed random effects is usually the appropriate tool to analyse the data because it…
A recent literature in econometrics models unobserved cross-sectional heterogeneity in panel data by assigning each cross-sectional unit a one-dimensional, discrete latent type. Such models have been shown to allow estimation and inference…
Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…
Loss reserving generally focuses on identifying a single model that can generate superior predictive performance. However, different loss reserving models specialise in capturing different aspects of loss data. This is recognised in…
In an era of data abundance, statistical evidence is increasingly critical for business and policy decisions. Yet, organizations lack empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making (EBDM), optimize statistical…
This paper studies regional exposure designs that use commodity prices as instruments to study local effects of aggregate shocks. Unlike standard shift share designs that leverage differential exposure to many shocks, the price exposure…
Time-to-event analysis is a branch of statistics that has increased in popularity during the last decades due to its many application fields, such as predictive maintenance, customer churn prediction and population lifetime estimation. In…
This paper considers fixed effects (FE) estimation for linear panel data models under possible model misspecification when both the number of individuals, $n$, and the number of time periods, $T$, are large. We first clarify the probability…
Empirical researchers often estimate spillover effects by fitting linear or non-linear regression models to sampled network data. We show that common sampling schemes bias these estimates, potentially upwards, and derive biased-corrected…