相关论文: Bayesian model selection without evidences: applic…

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest $\bf q$ from some data $D$ involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p({\bf q},{\bf n} | D) \propto \mathcal{L}(D | {\bf q},{\bf n}) p({\bf…

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to…

When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the…

With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…

No--arbitrage property provides a simple method for pricing financial derivatives. However, arbitrage opportunities exist among different markets in various fields, even for a very short time. By knowing that an arbitrage property exists,…

Leaving posterior sensitivity concerns aside, non-identifiability of the parameters does not raise a difficulty for Bayesian inference as far as the posterior is proper, but multi-modality or flat regions of the posterior induced by the…

The posterior over Bayesian neural network (BNN) parameters is extremely high-dimensional and non-convex. For computational reasons, researchers approximate this posterior using inexpensive mini-batch methods such as mean-field variational…

Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods (or likelihood-free methods) have appeared in the past fifteen years as useful methods to perform Bayesian analyses when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. Several…

Bayesian low-rank matrix factorization techniques have become an essential tool for relational data analysis and matrix completion. A standard approach is to assign zero-mean Gaussian priors on the columns or rows of factor matrices to…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

Bayesian variable selection requires sampling from a posterior distribution that combines discrete model indicators with continuously varying parameters, a challenge often addressed through reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC).…

Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

We consider Bayesian inference in sequential latent variable models in general, and in nonlinear state space models in particular (i.e., state smoothing). We work with sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, which provide a powerful…

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…