相关论文: Bayesian model selection without evidences: applic…

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems.…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

In recent years, methods for Bayesian inference have been widely used in many different problems in physics where detection and characterization are necessary. Data analysis in gravitational-wave astronomy is a prime example of such a case.…

This paper deals with the estimation of the unknown distribution of hidden random variables from the observation of pairwise comparisons between these variables. This problem is inspired by recent developments on Bradley-Terry models in…

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

This article considers Bayesian model inference on binary model spaces. Binary model spaces are used by a large class of models, including graphical models, variable selection, mixture distributions, and decision trees. Traditional…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

For the first time, we reconstruct the dark energy equation of the state parameter $w$ from the combination of background and perturbation observations, specifically combining the Hubble parameter data from cosmic chronometer observations…

The Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current…

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

We consider the problem of estimation in Hidden Markov models with finite state space and nonparametric emission distributions. Efficient estimators for the transition matrix are exhibited, and a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises result is…

A model-independent method to study the possible evolution of dark energy is presented. Optimal estimates of the dark energy equation of state w are obtained from current supernovae data from Riess et al. (2004) following a principal…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into…

We compute the distribution of likelihoods from the non-parametric iterative smoothing method over a set of mock Pantheon-like type Ia supernova datasets. We use this likelihood distribution to test whether typical dark energy models are…

We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

Noninformative priors constructed for estimation purposes are usually not appropriate for model selection and testing. The methodology of integral priors was developed to get prior distributions for Bayesian model selection when comparing…