相关论文: Bayesian model selection without evidences: applic…

We use parameterized post-Friedmann (PPF) description for dark energy and apply ellipsoidal nested sampling to perform the Bayesian model selection method on different time-dependent dark energy models using a combination of $Planck$ and…

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Central to model selection is a trade-off between performing a good fit and low model complexity: A model of higher complexity should only be favoured over a simpler model if it provides significantly better fits. In Bayesian terms, this…

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

We use Bayesian model selection techniques to test extensions of the standard flat LambdaCDM paradigm. Dark-energy and curvature scenarios, and primordial perturbation models are considered. To that end, we calculate the Bayesian evidence…

While Bayesian model selection is a useful tool to discriminate between competing cosmological models, it only gives a relative rather than an absolute measure of how good a model is. Bayesian doubt introduces an unknown benchmark model…

We propose a posterior for Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) based on generalized Bayesian inference. To define the posterior, we use Scoring Rules (SRs), which evaluate probabilistic models given an observation. In LFI, we can…

We explore the theoretical and numerical property of a fully Bayesian model selection method in sparse ultrahigh-dimensional settings, i.e., $p\gg n$, where $p$ is the number of covariates and $n$ is the sample size. Our method consists of…

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable…

We develop an efficient, non-parametric Bayesian method for reconstructing the time evolution of the dark energy equation of state w(z) from observational data. Of particular importance is the choice of prior, which must be chosen carefully…

Because of their multimodality, mixture posterior distributions are difficult to sample with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We propose a strategy to enhance the sampling of MCMC in this context, using a biasing procedure…

We consider priors for several nonparametric Bayesian models which use finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

We carry out a Bayesian analysis of dark matter (DM) direct detection data to determine particle model parameters using the Truncated Marginal Neural Ratio Estimation (TMNRE) machine learning technique. TMNRE avoids an explicit calculation…

Many inference problems involve inferring the number $N$ of components in some region, along with their properties $\{\mathbf{x}_i\}_{i=1}^N$, from a dataset $\mathcal{D}$. A common statistical example is finite mixture modelling. In the…

We do a comprehensive study of the Bayesian evidences for a large number of dark energy models using a combination of latest cosmological data from SNIa, CMB, BAO, Strong lensing time delay, Growth measurements, measurements of Hubble…

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

We compute the Bayesian evidences for one- and two-parameter models of evolving dark energy, and compare them to the evidence for a cosmological constant, using current data from Type Ia supernova, baryon acoustic oscillations, and the…

Motivated by examples from genetic association studies, this paper considers the model selection problem in a general complex linear model system and in a Bayesian framework. We discuss formulating model selection problems and incorporating…

In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to…