相关论文: On flare predictability based on sunspot group evo…
n order to better understand the solar genesis of interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) we model the magnetic and topological properties of four large eruptive solar flares and relate them to observations. We use the three-dimensional…
Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…
Several studies have correlated observations of impulsive solar activity -- flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) -- with the amount of magnetic flux near strong-field polarity inversion lines (PILs) in active regions' photospheric…
Non-thermal velocities, derived from spectral line broadening, can provide crucial insights into plasma dynamics before and during solar flares. To systematically study the pre-flare phase, we constructed a Hinode/Extreme-ultraviolet…
In this paper, we propose a novel loss function aimed at optimizing the binary flare prediction problem by embedding the intrinsic ordinal flare characteristics into the binary cross-entropy (BCE) loss function. This modification is…
Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have rapidly risen to prominence due to their greater accuracy and speed than traditional forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), recently outperforming traditional ensembles in…
Gamma-ray burst X-ray flares are believed to mark the late time activity of the central engine. We compute the temporal evolution of the average flare luminosity $< L >$ in the common rest frame energy band of 44 GRBs taken from the large…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
Evaluations are presented for the prediction of wind power ramping events in the Belgian Offshore Zone. Two models from the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium are verified: the operational ALARO-4km and its version with Wind Farm…
Solar flares are known to generate seismic waves in the Sun. We present a detailed analysis of seismic emission in sunspots accompanying M- and X-class solar flares. For this purpose, we have used high-resolution Dopplergrams and…
We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing…
A hybrid two-stage machine learning architecture that addresses the problem of excessive false positives (false alarms) in solar flare prediction systems is investigated. The first stage is a convolutional neural network (CNN) model based…
The sunspot-associated sources at the frequency of 17 GHz give information on plasma parameters in the regions of magnetic field about B=2000 G at the level of the chromosphere-corona transition region. The observations of short period…
A magnetic power spectral analysis is performed on 53 solar active regions, observed from August 2011 to July 2012. Magnetic field data obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, inverted as Active Region Patches, are used to study…
Ground level enhancements (GLEs) are relativistic sol particles measured at ground level by a worldwide network of cosmic ray detectors. These sporadic events are associated with solar flares and are assumed to be of a quasi-random nature.…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of stellar space weather and can strongly influence the habitability of exoplanets. However, compared to the frequent occurrence of white-light flares, confirmed stellar CMEs remain extremely…
Data-driven modeling of collective dynamics is a challenging problem because emergent phenomena in multi-agent systems are often shaped by long-range interactions among individuals. For example, in bird flocks and fish schools, long-range…
On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed $\approx$2500 km s$^{-1}$ was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth ($\approx$36 hours) and…
We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of…
Linear time-distance helioseismic inversions are carried out using several filtering schemes to determine vector flow velocities within two $\sim100^2\,{\rm Mm^2}\times 20\,{\rm Mm}$ realistic magnetohydrodynamic sunspot simulations of…