相关论文: Asymptotics of Monte Carlo maximum likelihood esti…

Indirect inference estimators (i.e., simulation-based minimum distance estimators) in a parametric model that are based on auxiliary non-parametric maximum likelihood density estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal. If the…

This paper addresses finite sample stability properties of sequential Monte Carlo methods for approximating sequences of probability distributions. The results presented herein are applicable in the scenario where the start and end…

We examine the sources of error in the histogram reweighting method for Monte Carlo data analysis. We demonstrate that, in addition to the standard statistical error which has been studied elsewhere, there are two other sources of error,…

It is well known that, under standard regularity conditions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) satisfies a central limit theorem and converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as the sample size grows. This paper…

While the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator under regularity conditions is long established, this paper derives explicit bounds for the bounded Wasserstein distance between the distribution of the maximum likelihood…

Markov regime switching models have been widely used in numerous empirical applications in economics and finance. However, the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has not been proven for some empirically…

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods rely on a hierarchy of possibly less accurate but statistically correlated simplified or reduced models, in order to accelerate the estimation of statistics of high-fidelity models without compromising the…

We represent affine sub-manifolds of exponential family distributions as minimum relative entropy sub-manifolds. With such representation we derive analytical formulas for the inference from partial information on expectations and…

The multivariate extremal index function relates the asymptotic distribution of the vector of pointwise maxima of a multivariate stationary sequence to that of the independent sequence from the same stationary distribution. It also measures…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods represent a classical set of techniques to simulate a sequence of probability measures through a simple selection/mutation mechanism. However, the associated selection functions and mutation kernels…

An introduction to the basics of Monte Carlo is given. The topics covered include, sample space, events, probabilities, random variables, mean, variance, covariance, characteristic function, chebyshev inequality, law of large numbers,…

The extreme value index is a fundamental parameter in univariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT). It captures the tail behavior of a distribution and is central in the extrapolation beyond observed data. Among other semi-parametric methods (such…

We show that there is an intimate connection between the theory of nonparametric (smoothed) maximum likelihood estimators for certain inverse problems and integral equations. This is illustrated by estimators for interval censoring and…

Asymptotic expansions are derived for the tail distribution of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances, and more generally the sum of independent copies of such random variables.…

For an affine two factor model, we study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood and least squares estimators of some appearing parameters in the so-called subcritical (ergodic) case based on continuous time observations. We…

Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…

Standard confidence intervals employed in applied statistical analysis are usually based on asymptotic approximations. Such approximations can be considerably inaccurate in small and moderate sized samples. We derive accurate confidence…

Recent advances in quasi-Monte Carlo integration have shown that for linearly scrambled digital net estimators, the convergence rate can be dramatically improved by taking the median rather than the mean of multiple independent replicates.…

We study the empirical likelihood approach to construct confidence intervals for the optimal value and the optimality gap of a given solution, henceforth quantify the statistical uncertainty of sample average approximation, for optimization…

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…