相关论文: Forecasting the 2013--2014 Influenza Season using …
Rainfall is associated with the outbreak of certain waterborne faecal-oral diseases, driving the implementation of various human interventions for their control and prevention. Taking into account human intervention and temporal variation…
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…
Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…
In order for epidemiological forecasts to be useful for decision-makers the forecasts need to be properly validated and evaluated. Although several metrics fore evaluation have been proposed and used none of them account for the potential…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…
Despite the recent development of methods dealing with partially observed epidemic dynamics (unobserved model coordinates, discrete and noisy outbreak data), limitations remain in practice, mainly related to the quantity of augmented data…
From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between…
We present an analysis of an avian flu model that yields insight into the role of different transmission routes in the recurrence of avian influenza epidemics. Recent modelling work on avian influenza in wild bird populations takes into…
Human behaviour strongly influences the spread of infectious diseases: understanding the interplay between epidemic dynamics and adaptive behaviours is essential to improve response strategies to epidemics, with the goal of containing the…
Forecasting disease spread is a critical tool to help public health officials design and plan public health interventions. However, the expected future state of an epidemic is not necessarily well defined as disease spread is inherently…
The accurate estimation of time-varying transmission rates is fundamental for understanding infectious disease dynamics and implementing effective public health interventions. To this end, we propose an improved inverse method for…
Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not described by…
Avian Influenza breakouts cause millions of dollars in damage each year globally, especially in Asian countries such as China and South Korea. The impact magnitude of a breakout directly correlates to time required to fully understand the…
Measles presents a unique and imminent challenge for epidemiologists and public health officials: the disease is highly contagious, yet vaccination rates are declining precipitously in many localities. Consequently, the risk of a measles…
The global spread of avian influenza A viruses in domestic birds is causing dramatic economic and social losses. Various mechanistic models have been developed in an attempt to better understand avian influenza transmission and to evaluate…
So far, Google Trend data have been used for influenza surveillance in many European and American countries; however, there are few attempts to apply the low-cost surveillance method in Asian developing countries. To investigate the…
Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting,…
Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South, and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a…
The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…