相关论文: Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts us…

Real-world social events typically exhibit a severe class-imbalance distribution, which makes the trained detection model encounter a serious generalization challenge. Most studies solve this problem from the frequency perspective and…

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

Understanding human mobility is critical for decision support in areas from urban planning to infectious diseases control. Prior work has focused on tracking daily logs of outdoor mobility without considering relevant context, which contain…

Here we study the emergence of spontaneous leadership in large populations. In standard models of opinion dynamics, herding behavior is only obeyed at the local scale due to the interaction of single agents with their neighbors; while at…

Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as…

The continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic…

Robust and adaptive control strategies are needed when robots or automated systems are introduced to unknown and dynamic environments where they are required to cope with disturbances, unmodeled dynamics, and parametric uncertainties. In…

In this work we present the results of a numerical and semiclassical analysis of high lying states in a Hamiltonian system, whose classical mechanics is of a generic, mixed type, where the energy surface is split into regions of regular and…

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich…

Data collected from wearable devices and smartphones can shed light on an individual's pattern of behavioral and circadian routine. Phone use can be modeled as alternating event process, between the state of active use and the state of…

Traditional survey-based political issue polling is becoming less tractable due to increasing costs and risk of bias associated with growing non-response rates and declining coverage of key demographic groups. With researchers and pollsters…

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

This manuscript investigates unconditional and conditional-on-stopping maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), information measures and information loss associated with conditioning in group sequential designs (GSDs). The possibility of early…

The use of longitudinal finite mixture models such as group-based trajectory modeling has seen a sharp increase during the last decades in the medical literature. However, these methods have been criticized especially because of the…

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently.…

Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…

In this paper, we study news group modeling and forecasting methods using quantitative data generated by our large-scale natural language processing (NLP) text analysis system. A news group is a set of news entities, like top U.S. cities,…

When large language models (LLMs) are asked to perform certain tasks, how can we be sure that their learned representations align with reality? We propose a domain-agnostic framework for systematically evaluating distribution shifts in LLMs…

Time series data from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) provides critical information for patient monitoring. While recent advancements in applying Large Language Models (LLMs) to time series modeling (TSM) have shown great promise, their…