相关论文: Short-term Forecasting of Anomalous Load Using Rul…

Because of the fast advance rate and the improved personnel safety, tunnel boring machines (TBMs) have been widely used in a variety of tunnel construction projects. The dynamic modeling of TBM load parameters (including torque, advance…

Most unsupervised anomaly detection methods based on representations of normal samples to distinguish anomalies have recently made remarkable progress. However, existing methods only learn a single decision boundary for distinguishing the…

Adaptive time series forecasting is essential for prediction under regime changes. Several classical methods assume linear Gaussian state space model (LGSSM) with variances constant in time. However, there are many real-world processes that…

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

This work contributes to the development of neural forecasting models with novel randomization-based learning methods. These methods improve the fitting abilities of the neural model, in comparison to the standard method, by generating…

Unlabeled data are increasingly prevalent in contemporary economic studies, yet their effective use for improving prediction remains challenging because the outcomes are often costly or even infeasible to observe. Machine learning methods…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Building design optimization often depends on physics-based simulation tools such as EnergyPlus, which, although accurate, are computationally expensive and slow. Surrogate models provide a faster alternative, yet most are…

Rapid progress in machine learning and deep learning has enabled a wide range of applications in the electricity load forecasting of power systems, for instance, univariate and multivariate short-term load forecasting. Though the strong…

Predicting chaotic dynamical systems is critical in many scientific fields, such as weather forecasting, but challenging due to the characteristic sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Traditional modeling approaches require extensive…

Accurate short-term power load forecasting is important to effectively manage, optimize, and ensure the robustness of modern power systems. This paper performs an empirical evaluation of a traditional statistical model and deep learning…

In recent years, great progress has been made in the field of forecasting meteorological variables. Recently, deep learning architectures have made a major breakthrough in forecasting the daily average temperature over a ten-day horizon.…

Time Series Forecasting is at the core of many practical applications such as sales forecasting for business, rainfall forecasting for agriculture and many others. Though this problem has been extensively studied for years, it is still…

Long-range ensemble forecasts are typically verified as anomalies with respect to a lead-time dependent climatological mean to remove the influence of systematic biases. However, common methods for calculating anomalies result in…

Time-series anomaly detection, which detects errors and failures in a workflow, is one of the most important topics in real-world applications. The purpose of time-series anomaly detection is to reduce potential damages or losses. However,…

The expansion of residential demand response programs and increased deployment of controllable loads will require accurate appliance-level load modeling and forecasting. This paper proposes a conditional hidden semi-Markov model to describe…

Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient operation of the power sector. Forecasting load at a fine granularity such as hourly loads of individual households is challenging due to higher volatility and inherent…

The prediction of extreme events in time series is a fundamental problem arising in many financial, scientific, engineering, and other applications. We begin by establishing a general Neyman-Pearson-type characterization of optimal extreme…

This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…

Machine learning (ML) has become a versatile tool for analyzing anomalous diffusion trajectories, yet most existing pipelines are trained on large collections of simulated data. In contrast, experimental trajectories, such as those from…