相关论文: A new probabilistic shift away from seismic hazard…
Electric power networks are critical lifelines, and their disruption during earthquakes can lead to severe cascading failures and significantly hinder post-disaster recovery. Enhancing their seismic resilience requires identifying and…
This study makes significant contributions to the understanding of hail climatology in Austria. First, it introduces a comprehensive database of hailstone sizes, constructed from three-dimensional radar data spanning 2009 to 2022 and…
Italy reports some of the lowest levels of mortality in the developed world. Recent evidence, however, suggests that even in low mortality countries improvements may be slowing and regional inequalities widening. This study contributes new…
A major part of the seismicity striking the Mediterranean area and other regions worldwide is hosted in carbonate rocks. Recent examples are the destructive earthquakes of L'Aquila Mw 6.1 2009 and Norcia Mw 6.5 2016 in Central Italy.…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
While well-established methods for time-to-event data are available when the proportional hazards assumption holds, there is no consensus on the best inferential approach under non-proportional hazards (NPH). However, a wide range of…
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…
Past severe earthquakes, such as Bam earthquake of 2003 and Tabas earthquake of 1978, have demonstrated that many cities in Iran are prone to be struck by near-fault earthquakes. Such earthquakes are impulsive in nature, and therefore, they…
The paper deals with state estimation of a spatially distributed system given noisy measurements from pointwise-in-time-and-space threshold sensors spread over the spatial domain of interest. A Maximum A posteriori Probability (MAP)…
For seismic analysis in engineering structures, it is essential to consider the dynamic responses under seismic excitation, necessitating the description of seismic accelerations. Limit seismics samples lead to incomplete uncertainty…
In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to research and development methods able to assess the seismic energy propagation on the territory. The seismic energy propagation is strongly related to the complexity of the source and…
Climate change results in an increased probability of extreme weather events that put societies and businesses at risk on a global scale. Therefore, near real-time mapping of natural hazards is an emerging priority for the support of…
It has been shown [Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011); Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude $M$ greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance $\kappa_1$ of natural…
Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before…
Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…
Smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are emerging as a complementary solution to classic EEWS based on expensive scientific-grade instruments. Smartphone-based systems, however, are characterized by a highly dynamic…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
Two different way of assessing seismic vulnerability are available nowadays: observed or empirical and calculated vulnerability assessment methods. The first methods are based on observed damage after earthquakes correlated with the…
A multidisciplinary approach is proposed for evaluating the effects of shaking due to strong motions on the Tiber river alluvial deposits in Rome's historical centre. At this aim, a detailed 3D geological model of the Tiber river alluvial…