相关论文: Non-gravitational Perturbations and Virtual Impact…

Near-Earth asteroid (410777) 2009 FD is a potentially hazardous asteroid with potential impacts on Earth at the end of the 22nd century. The astrometry collected during the 2019 apparition provides information on the trajectory of (410777)…

We assess the risk of an Earth impact for asteroid (99942) Apophis by means of a statistical analysis accounting for the uncertainty of both the orbital solution and the Yarkovsky effect. We select those observations with either rigorous…

The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities…

In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the astrometric treatment, the numerical error in…

We seek evidence of the Yarkovsky effect among Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by measuring the Yarkovsky-related orbital drift from the orbital fit. To prevent the occurrence of unreliable detections we employ a high precision dynamical model,…

The aim is to show that in case of low probability of asteroid collision with Earth, the appropriate selection and weighing of the data are crucial for the impact investigation, and to analyze the impact possibilities using extensive…

We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semimajor axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky…

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs), a special subset of Near-Earth Objects, are both dangerous and scientifically valuable. PHAs that truly undergo close approaches with the Earth (dubbed CAPHAs) are of particular interest and…

We present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study we…

Summary: In the past decade both scientists and laymen have probably heard at least once through the newspapers, TV and Internet that a new asteroid has been discovered with non-zero (sometimes "high") probability of collision with the…

Asteroids that could collide with the Earth are listed on the publicly available Near-Earth object (NEO) hazard web sites maintained by the US and European space agencies (NASA and ESA). The impact probability distribution of 69 potentially…

Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the RMS of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of the orbit solution may be compatible with trajectories…

The Yarkovsky effect is a thermal process acting upon the orbits of small celestial bodies, which can cause these orbits to slowly expand or contract with time. The effect is subtle (da/dt ~ 10^-4 au/My for a 1 km diameter object) and is…

The primary objective of this study was to utilize the newest Gaia FPR catalogue containing ultra-precise asteroid astrometry spanning over 66 months to detect the Yarkovsky effect, a non-gravitational acceleration that affects the orbits…

In this article, theory-based analytical methodologies of astrophysics employed in the modern era are suitably operated alongside a test research-grade telescope to image and determine the orbit of a near-earth asteroid from original…

We have identified and quantified semi-major axis drifts in Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by performing orbital fits to optical and radar astrometry of all numbered NEAs. We focus on a subset of 54 NEAs that exhibit some of the most reliable…

Dynamical studies of asteroid populations in retrograde orbits, that is with orbital inclinations greater than 90 degrees, are interesting because the origin of such orbits is still unexplained. Generally, the population of retrograde…

Tumbling asteroids belong to a small group of objects, whose angular velocity vector is unaligned with any of its principal axes of inertia. This leads to challenging efforts to model the trajectory of any spacecraft designed to orbit these…

The Monte Carlo method of the nominal orbit clonning was applied to the case of 99942 Apophis, the asteroid from the Aten group. Calculations based on observations from the time interval of 2004 03 15 - 2008 01 09 have shown that the…

Hazardous asteroid has been one of the concerns for humankind as fallen asteroid on earth could cost a huge impact on the society.Monitoring these objects could help predict future impact events, but such efforts are hindered by the large…