相关论文: Probability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hi…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to…

We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are an important tool in machine learning and statistics with applications ranging from social and natural science through engineering. They constitute a powerful kernelized non-parametric method with…

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure,…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…

Crowdsourcing enables the solicitation of forecasts on a variety of prediction tasks from distributed groups of people. How to aggregate the solicited forecasts, which may vary in quality, into an accurate final prediction remains a…

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…

We present a new method for probabilistic elicitation of expert knowledge using binary responses of human experts assessing simulated data from a statistical model, where the parameters are subject to uncertainty. The binary responses…

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

We consider the task of aggregating beliefs of severalexperts. We assume that these beliefs are represented as probabilitydistributions. We argue that the evaluation of any aggregationtechnique depends on the semantic context of this task.…

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…

We propose a framework for probability aggregation based on propositional probability logic. Unlike conventional judgment aggregation, which focuses on static rationality, our model addresses dynamic rationality by ensuring that collective…

We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying information. Prior work shows strong impossibility results, e.g.…

This paper proposes a unified theoretical model to identify and test a comprehensive set of probabilistic updating biases within a single framework. The model achieves separate identification by focusing on the updating of belief…

The importance of accurately quantifying forecast uncertainty has motivated much recent research on probabilistic forecasting. In particular, a variety of deep learning approaches has been proposed, with forecast distributions obtained as…

Central banks rely on density forecasts from professional surveys to assess inflation risks and communicate uncertainty. A central challenge in using these surveys is irregular participation: forecasters enter and exit, skip rounds, and…