相关论文: Spatial postprocessing of ensemble forecasts for t…

Sub-seasonal weather forecasts are becoming increasingly important for a range of socio-economic activities. However, the predictive ability of physical weather models is very limited on these time scales. We propose several post-processing…

Statistical postprocessing techniques are nowadays key components of the forecasting suites in many National Meteorological Services (NMS), with for most of them, the objective of correcting the impact of different types of errors on the…

State-of-the-art weather forecasts usually rely on ensemble prediction systems, accounting for the different sources of uncertainty. As ensembles are typically uncalibrated, they should get statistically postprocessed. Several multivariate…

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

Due to limited computational resources, medium-range temperature forecasts typically rely on low-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which are prone to systematic and random errors. We propose a method that integrates a…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for grid operations, electricity markets, and energy planning, as solar systems now contribute a significant share of the electricity supply in many…

Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…

In applications of climate information, coarse-resolution climate projections commonly need to be downscaled to a finer grid. One challenge of this requirement is the modeling of sub-grid variability and the spatial and temporal dependence…

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…

Spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression is a popular method for spatial-temporal data modeling. Its state-of-art implementation is based on the state-space model realization of the spatial-temporal Gaussian process and its…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

Short-range forecasts of precipitation fields are needed in a wealth of agricultural, hydrological, ecological and other applications. Forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are often biased and do not provide uncertainty…

Ensembles of forecasts are typically employed to account for the forecast uncertainties inherent in predictions of future weather states. However, biases and dispersion errors often present in forecast ensembles require statistical…

Meteorological ensembles are a collection of scenarios for future weather delivered by a meteorological center. Such ensembles form the main source of valuable information for probabilistic forecasting which aims at producing a predictive…

The goal of this study was to improve the post-processing of precipitation forecasts using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Instead of post-processing forecasts on a per-pixel basis, as is usually done when employing machine learning…

Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…

Reliable forecasts of quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (weather regimes) are crucial for various socio-economic sectors. Despite steady progress, probabilistic weather regime…

Seasonal weather forecasts are crucial for long-term planning in many practical situations and skillful forecasts may have substantial economic and humanitarian implications. Current seasonal forecasting models require statistical…

To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run multiple times, each time with different formulations and/or…