相关论文: Bayesian Benchmark Dose Analysis

Approving and assessing new drugs is complex because multiple criteria must be considered simultaneously. A common approach is benefit-risk analysis, often conducted within a Bayesian framework to account for uncertainty and combine data…

A common way of characterizing minimax estimators in point estimation is by moving the problem into the Bayesian estimation domain and finding a least favorable prior distribution. The Bayesian estimator induced by a least favorable prior,…

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

Exposure assessment models are deterministic models derived from physical-chemical laws. In real workplace settings, chemical concentration measurements can be noisy and indirectly measured. In addition, inference on important parameters…

Over the last few decades, prediction models have become a fundamental tool in statistics, chemometrics, and related fields. However, to ensure that such models have high value, the inferences that they generate must be reliable. In this…

Informed and robust decision making in the face of uncertainty is critical for robots that perform physical tasks alongside people. We formulate this as Bayesian Reinforcement Learning over latent Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). While…

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a popular method in genetic epidemiology to estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome by using genetic instruments. These instruments are often selected from a combination of prior knowledge from…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

The digital telecommunications receiver is an important context for inference methodology, the key objective being to minimize the expected loss function in recovering the transmitted information. For that criterion, the optimal decision is…

Modern statistical modeling is an important complement to the more traditional approach of physics where Complex Systems are studied by means of extremely simple idealized models. The Minimum Description Length (MDL) is a principled…

Parameter ensembles or sets of random effects constitute one of the cornerstones of modern statistical practice. This is especially the case in Bayesian hierarchical models, where several decision theoretic frameworks can be deployed. The…

The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…

The primary objective of phase I cancer clinical trials is to evaluate the safety of a new experimental treatment and to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). We show that the MTD estimation problem can be regarded as a level set…

With larger data at their disposal, scientists are emboldened to tackle complex questions that require sophisticated statistical models. It is not unusual for the latter to have likelihood functions that elude analytical formulations. Even…

This work addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of the general half-normal distribution. Namely, the problem of determining the minimum risk equi\-va\-riant (MRE) estimators of the parameters is explored. Simulation studies are…

Consider a statistical problem where a set of parameters are of interest to a researcher. Then multiple confidence intervals can be constructed to infer the set of parameters simultaneously. The constructed multiple confidence intervals are…

A Bayesian method of moments/instrumental variable (BMOM/IV) approach is developed and applied in the analysis of the important mean and multiple regression models. Given a single set of data, it is shown how to obtain posterior and…

Greater understanding of the pathways through which an environmental mixture operates is important to design effective interventions. We present new methodology to estimate natural direct and indirect effects and controlled direct effects…

In the need for low assumption inferential methods in infinite-dimensional settings, Bayesian adaptive estimation via a prior distribution that does not depend on the regularity of the function to be estimated nor on the sample size is…

Previously, using forward-flux sampling (FFS) and machine learning (ML), we developed multivariate alarm systems to counter rare un-postulated abnormal events. Our alarm systems utilized ML-based predictive models to quantify committer…