相关论文: A Dutch Book theorem for partial subjective probab…

We define quantum-like probabilistic behaviour as behaviour which is impossible to describe by using the classical probability model. We discuss the conjecture that cognitive behaviour is quantum-like. There is presented the scheme for an…

Bayesian probability theory is one of the most successful frameworks to model reasoning under uncertainty. Its defining property is the interpretation of probabilities as degrees of belief in propositions about the state of the world…

There is much interest in providing probabilistic semantics for defaults but most approaches seem to suffer from one of two problems: either they require numbers, a problem defaults were intended to avoid, or they generate peculiar side…

How can probabilities make sense in a deterministic many-worlds theory? We address two facets of this problem: why should rational agents assign subjective probabilities to branching events, and why should branching events happen with…

If we accept Savage's set of axioms, then all uncertainties must be treated like ordinary probability. Savage espoused subjective probability, allowing, for example, the probability of Donald Trump's re-election. But Savage's probability…

We first show that there are practical situations in for instance forensic and gambling settings, in which applying classical probability theory, that is, based on the axioms of Kolmogorov, is problematic. We then introduce and discuss…

The aim of this expos\'e is to make explicit the analogy between the classical notion of non-independent probability distribution and the quantum notion of entangled state. To bring that analogy forth, we consider a classical systems with…

The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of probability is best understood by dividing this concept into two different types of probability, namely physical probability and analogical probability. Loosely speaking, a physical…

This study has the purpose of addressing four questions that lie at the base of the probability theory and statistics, and includes two main steps. As first, we conduct the textual analysis of the most significant works written by eminent…

The disjunction effect in human decision making is often taken to show that the classical law of total probability is violated, motivating quantum-like models. We re-examine this claim for the Prisoner's Dilemma disjunction effect. Under…

This paper is motivated by the questions of how to give the concept of probability an adequate real-world meaning, and how to explain a certain type of phenomenon that can be found, for instance, in Ellsberg's paradox. It attempts to answer…

In a recent paper (quant-ph/9906015), Deutsch claims to derive the "probabilistic predictions of quantum theory" from the "non-probabilistic axioms of quantum theory" and the "non-probabilistic part of classical decision theory." We show…

Conditionals play a key role in different areas of logic and probabilistic reasoning, and they have been studied and formalized from different angles. In this paper we focus on the de Finetti's notion of conditional as a three-valued…

We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…

In this article the idea of random variables over the set theoretic universe is investigated. We explore what it can mean for a random set to have a specific probability of belonging to an antecedently given class of sets.

This paper studies a new and more general axiomatization than one presented previously for preference on likelihood gambles. Likelihood gambles describe actions in a situation where a decision maker knows multiple probabilistic models and a…

Stemming from de Finetti's work on finitely additive coherent probabilities, the paradigm of coherence has been applied to many uncertainty calculi in order to remove structural restrictions on the domain of the assessment. Three possible…

Physicists have, hitherto, mostly adopted a frequentist conception of probability, according to which probability statements apply only to ensembles. It is argued that we should, instead, adopt an epistemic, or Bayesian conception, in which…

Can a probabilistic gambler get arbitrarily rich when all deterministic gamblers fail? We study this problem in the context of algorithmic randomness, introducing a new notion -- almost everywhere computable randomness. A binary sequence…

The notion of probability plays an important role in almost all areas of science and technology. In modern mathematics, however, probability theory means nothing other than measure theory, and the operational characterization of the notion…