相关论文: Migration paths saturations in meta-epidemic syste…

We consider a two-patches SIR model where communication occurs thru commuters, distinguishing explicitly permanently resident populations from commuters populations. We give an explicit formula of the reproduction number, and show how the…

We propose an epidemic model for the spread of vector-borne diseases. The model, which is built extending the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible model, accounts for two populations -- humans and vectors -- and for cross-contagion…

The dynamics of economies and infectious disease are inexorably linked: economic well-being influences health (sanitation, nutrition, treatment capacity, etc.) and health influences economic well-being (labor productivity lost to sickness…

We study the extinction risk of a fragmented population residing on a network of patches coupled by migration, where the local patch dynamics include the Allee effect. We show that mixing between patches dramatically influences the…

We use a stochastic metapopulation model to study the combined effects of seasonality and spatial heterogeneity on disease persistence. We find a pronounced effect of enhanced persistence associated with strong heterogeneity, intermediate…

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

We present a model for obligated mutualistic associations, in which two transmissible diseases are allowed to infect just one population. As the general model proves too hard to be fully analytically investigated, some special cases are…

Our study is devoted to a four-compartment epidemic model of a constant population of independent random walkers. Each walker is in one of four compartments (S-susceptible, C-infected but not infectious (period of incubation), I-infected…

We present two new models for interacting populations subject to a transmissible disease. The novelty lies in the assumption that herd behavior influences the disease incidence, rather than the demographic description of the interactions,…

We study the influence of heterogeneous mobility patterns in a population on the SIS epidemic model. In particular, we consider a patchy environment in which each patch comprises individuals belonging the different classes, e.g.,…

In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…

Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…

The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point of all past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single…

We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…

Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for…

Here, we consider an SIS epidemic model where the individuals are distributed on several distinct patches. We construct a stochastic model and then prove that it converges to a deterministic model as the total population size tends to…

The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer…

Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…

Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…

The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…