相关论文: Hierarchical Semi-parametric Duration Models

This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…

This paper considers a Markovian model of a limit order book where time-dependent rates are allowed. With the objective of understanding the mechanisms through which a microscopic model of an orderbook can converge to more general diffusion…

This paper presents a nonparametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a…

Time-to-event analysis, also known as survival analysis, aims to predict the time of occurrence of an event, given a set of features. One of the major challenges in this area is dealing with censored data, which can make learning algorithms…

In modelling time series data coming from different sources, frequencies can easily vary since some variable can be measured at higher frequencies, others, at lower frequencies. Given data measured over spatial units and at varying…

Stochastic volatility (SV) models mimic many of the stylized facts attributed to time series of asset returns, while maintaining conceptual simplicity. The commonly made assumption of conditionally normally distributed or…

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data…

Time series prediction is an important problem in machine learning. Previous methods for time series prediction did not involve additional information. With a lot of dynamic knowledge graphs available, we can use this additional information…

Over the last decade, nonparametric methods have gained increasing attention for modeling complex data structures due to their flexibility and minimal structural assumptions. In this paper, we study a general multivariate nonparametric…

Many regenerative arguments in stochastic processes use random times which are akin to stopping times, but which are determined by the future as well as the past behaviour of the process of interest. Such arguments based on "conditioning on…

This paper presents a new model-based algorithm that computes predictive optimal controls on-line and in closed loop for traditionally challenging nonlinear systems. Examples demonstrate the same algorithm controlling hybrid impulsive,…

We introduce a simple and tractable methodology for estimating semiparametric conditional latent factor models. Our approach disentangles the roles of characteristics in capturing factor betas of asset returns from ``alpha.'' We construct…

This paper presents a data-driven interpretable machine learning algorithm for semi-static hedging of Exchange Traded options, considering transaction costs with efficient run-time. Further, we provide empirical evidence on the performance…

In this paper, a sampling-based Stochastic Model Predictive Control algorithm is proposed for discrete-time linear systems subject to both parametric uncertainties and additive disturbances. One of the main drivers for the development of…

We address the problem of executing large client orders in continuous double-auction markets under time and liquidity constraints. We propose a model predictive control (MPC) framework that balances three competing objectives: order…

Standard methods and theories in finance can be ill-equipped to capture highly non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems based on large-scale datasets, with deep learning offering a way to gain insights into correlations in…

Learning the parameters of a (potentially partially observable) random field model is intractable in general. Instead of focussing on a single optimal parameter value we propose to treat parameters as dynamical quantities. We introduce an…

Data-driven methods for modeling dynamic systems have received considerable attention as they provide a mechanism for control synthesis directly from the observed time-series data. In the absence of prior assumptions on how the time-series…

Within the context of multivariate time series segmentation this paper proposes a method inspired by a posteriori optimal trading. After a normalization step time series are treated channel-wise as surrogate stock prices that can be traded…

We propose a constructive approach to building temporal point processes that incorporate dependence on their history. The dependence is modeled through the conditional density of the duration, i.e., the interval between successive event…