相关论文: Bayesian Additive Regression Trees With Parametric…

The nested error regression model is a useful tool for analyzing clustered (grouped) data, and is especially used in small area estimation. The classical nested error regression model assumes normality of random effects and error terms, and…

Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of…

We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…

Using data collected on almost every 9-12 years old student in Uruguay, we show how to apply Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) with random effects to study performance association with Learning Managment System (LMS) activity and…

This work affords new insights into Bayesian CART in the context of structured wavelet shrinkage. The main thrust is to develop a formal inferential framework for Bayesian tree-based regression. We reframe Bayesian CART as a g-type prior…

The linear regression model is widely used in empirical work in Economics, Statistics, and many other disciplines. Researchers often include many covariates in their linear model specification in an attempt to control for confounders. We…

We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…

When estimating a Global Average Treatment Effect (GATE) under network interference, units can have widely different relationships to the treatment depending on a combination of the structure of their network neighborhood, the structure of…

High-dimensional variable selection, with many more covariates than observations, is widely documented in standard regression models, but there are still few tools to address it in non-linear mixed-effects models where data are collected…

Autocovariance of the error term in a time series model plays a key role in the estimation and inference for the model that it belongs to. Typically, some arbitrary parametric structure is assumed upon the error to simplify the estimation,…

This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically…

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

In high-dimensional linear models, sparsity is often exploited to reduce variability and achieve parsimony. Equi-sparsity, where one assumes that predictors can be aggregated into groups sharing the same effects, is an alternative…

Staged trees are a relatively recent class of probabilistic graphical models that extend Bayesian networks to formally and graphically account for non-symmetric patterns of dependence. Machine learning algorithms to learn them from data…

Heteroskedastic errors can lead to inaccurate statistical conclusions if they are not properly handled. We introduce a test for heteroskedasticity for the nonparametric regression model with multiple covariates. It is based on a suitable…

This paper proposes Bayesian Adaptive Trials (BAT) as both an efficient method to conduct trials and a unifying framework for evaluation social policy interventions, addressing limitations inherent in traditional methods such as Randomized…

We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…

Relational learning can be used to augment one data source with other correlated sources of information, to improve predictive accuracy. We frame a large class of relational learning problems as matrix factorization problems, and propose a…

Obtaining heteroscedastic predictive uncertainties from a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is vital to many applications. Often, heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties are learned as outputs of the BNN in addition to the predictive means,…