相关论文: Inference on Dynamic Models for non-Gaussian Rando…

Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation provides a fast and effective method for marginal inference on Bayesian hierarchical models. This methodology has been implemented in the R-INLA package which permits INLA to be used from within R…

Bayesian inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, particularly required for non-Gaussian data families. When dealing with complex hierarchical models, the MCMC approach can be computationally demanding in workflows…

Aiming to deliver improved precipitation simulations for hydrological impact assessment studies, we develop a methodology for modelling and simulating high-dimensional spatial precipitation extremes, focusing on both their marginal…

A Bayesian approach to predicting traffic flows at signalised intersections is considered using the the INLA framework. INLA is a deterministic, computationally efficient alternative to MCMC for estimating a posterior distribution. It is…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) encompass large class of statistical models, with a vast range of applications areas. GLMM extends the linear mixed models allowing for different types of response variable. Three most common data…

Misclassified variables used in regression models, either as a covariate or as the response, may lead to biased estimators and incorrect inference. Even though Bayesian models to adjust for misclassification error exist, it has not been…

We introduce a new copula-based correction for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) within the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models. While INLA is usually…

The INLA approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models has been shown to give fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals and also to be a valuable tool in practice via the R-package R-INLA. In this paper we…

This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…

The conditional extremes framework allows for event-based stochastic modeling of dependent extremes, and has recently been extended to spatial and spatio-temporal settings. After standardizing the marginal distributions and applying an…

Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

Time series with long-term structure arise in a variety of contexts and capturing this temporal structure is a critical challenge in time series analysis for both inference and forecasting settings. Traditionally, state space models have…

The key operation in Bayesian inference, is to compute high-dimensional integrals. An old approximate technique is the Laplace method or approximation, which dates back to Pierre- Simon Laplace (1774). This simple idea approximates the…

Efficient Bayesian inference remains a computational challenge in hierarchical models. Simulation-based approaches such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are still popular but have a large computational cost. When dealing with the large…

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. Nevertheless, in areas ranging from longitudinal studies in biostatistics to geostatistics, it is easy to find datasets that…

To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Regression models for circular variables are less developed, since the concept of building a linear predictor from linear combinations of covariates and various random effects, breaks the circular nature of the variable. In this paper, we…