相关论文: Reliability measures for indexed semi-Markov chain…

In this paper we consider the problem of wind energy production by using a second order semi-Markov chain in state and duration as a model of wind speed. The model used in this paper is based on our previous work where we have showed the…

In this paper a general second order semi-Markov reward model is presented. Equations for the higher order moments of the reward process are presented for the first time and applied to wind energy production. The application is executed by…

Modeling wind speed is one of the key element when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. A good model can be used for forecasting, site evaluation, turbines design and many other purposes. In this work we are…

The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an…

The increasing interest in renewable energy, particularly in wind, has given rise to the necessity of accurate models for the generation of good synthetic wind speed data. Markov chains are often used with this purpose but better models are…

The prediction of wind speed is one of the most important aspects when dealing with renewable energy. In this paper we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed…

Using a method for stochastic data analysis, borrowed from statistical physics, we analyze synthetic data from a Markov chain model that reproduces measurements of wind speed and power production in a wind park in Portugal. We first show…

The increasing interest in renewable energy, particularly in wind, has given rise to the necessity of accurate models for the generation of good synthetic wind speed data. Markov chains are often used with this purpose but better models are…

Wind energy is becoming a top contributor to the renewable energy mix, which raises potential reliability issues for the grid due to the fluctuating nature of its source. To achieve adequate reserve commitment and to promote market…

This paper presents an academia-industry joint case study, which was conducted to quantify and compare multi-year changes in power production performance of multiple turbines scattered over a mid-size wind farm. This analysis is referred to…

A method is proposed to reconstruct a cyclic time-inhomogeneous Markov pro- cess from measured data. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov model is fit to the data, taken here from measurements on a wind turbine. From the time-dependent…

The offshore wind energy is increasingly becoming an attractive source of energy due to having lower environmental impact. Effective operation and maintenance that ensures the maximum availability of the energy generation process using…

In this work, a novel predictive maintenance system is presented and applied to the main components of wind turbines. The proposed model is based on machine learning and statistical process control tools applied to SCADA (Supervisory…

This paper addresses the problem of predicting a wind farm's power generation when no or few statistical data is available. The study is based on a time-series wind speed model and on a simple dynamic model of a DFIG wind turbine including…

A wind turbine's power curve relates its power production to the wind speed it experiences. The typical shape of a power curve is well known and has been studied extensively; however, the power curves of individual turbine models can vary…

We present a new model for reliability analysis that is able to distinguish the latent internal vulnerability state of the equipment from the vulnerability caused by temporary external sources. Consider a wind farm where each turbine is…

Electrical energy production based on wind power has become the most popular renewable resources in the recent years because it gets reliable clean energy with minimum cost. The major challenge for wind turbines is the electrical and the…

We discuss the efficient computation of performance, reliability, and availability measures for Markov chains; these metrics, and the ones obtained by combining them, are often called performability measures. We show that this computational…

While a theoretical limit has long been established for the performance of a single turbine, no corresponding upper bound exists for the power output from a large wind farm, making it difficult to evaluate the available potential for…

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…