相关论文: A Bayesian Nonparametric Causal Model for Regressi…

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

This paper develops a class of Bayesian non- and semiparametric methods for estimating regression curves and surfaces. The main idea is to model the regression as locally linear, and then place suitable local priors on the local parameters.…

Distinguishing the cause and effect from bivariate observational data is the foundational problem that finds applications in many scientific disciplines. One solution to this problem is assuming that cause and effect are generated from a…

Regression models are used for inference and prediction in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers and analysts from different fields. In many research fields the amount of available data as well as…

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…

When observational data is available from practical studies and a directed cyclic graph for how various variables affect each other is known based on substantive understanding of the process, we consider a problem in which a control plan of…

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Bayesian learning is built on an assumption that the model space contains a true reflection of the data generating mechanism. This assumption is problematic, particularly in complex data environments. Here we present a Bayesian…

In this work, we propose a novel deep bootstrap framework for nonparametric regression based on conditional diffusion models. Specifically, we construct a conditional diffusion model to learn the distribution of the response variable given…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

In many problems, the measured variables (e.g., image pixels) are just mathematical functions of the latent causal variables (e.g., the underlying concepts or objects). For the purpose of making predictions in changing environments or…

Statistical methods for causal inference with continuous treatments mainly focus on estimating the mean potential outcome function, commonly known as the dose-response curve. However, it is often not the dose-response curve but its…

Existing causal methods for time-varying exposure and time-varying confounding focus on estimating the average causal effect of a time-varying binary treatment on an end-of-study outcome, offering limited tools for characterizing marginal…

Many methods of estimating causal models do not provide estimates of confidence in the resulting model. In this work, a metric is proposed for validating the output of a causal model fit; the robustness of the model structure with resampled…

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…

Bayesian nonparametric models offer a flexible and powerful framework for statistical model selection, enabling the adaptation of model complexity to the intricacies of diverse datasets. This survey intends to delve into the significance of…

Selecting input variables or design points for statistical models has been of great interest in adaptive design and active learning. Motivated by two scientific examples, this paper presents a strategy of selecting the design points for a…

Causal discovery from data affected by unobserved variables is an important but difficult problem to solve. The effects that unobserved variables have on the relationships between observed variables are more complex in nonlinear cases than…

This paper studies the identification of causal effects of a continuous treatment using a new difference-in-difference strategy. Our approach allows for endogeneity of the treatment, and employs repeated cross-sections. It requires an…